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December 15, 2025, 7:18 AM EST. Nvidia is weighing higher production of its H200 AI chip as China-bound demand outstrips supply. The move follows chatter that the U.S. could permit H200 sales to China with a 25% tariff, while Alibaba and ByteDance have shown interest in substantial orders. The H200 remains the most capable AI processor accessible to Chinese firms, ahead of Nvidia's downgraded H20 designed to comply with export rules. As Chinese cloud providers accelerate AI builds, the demand gap has widened. Yet hurdles remain: authorities have not approved H200 transactions and are weighing whether approving the chip could deter local alternatives. Any purchases might require locally developed chips. Nvidia's output ramp is challenging as it doubles down on Blackwell and the Rubin platform, amid TSMC capacity limits. Timing hinges on the coming weeks.