New York, Feb 25, 2026, 06:37 (EST) — Premarket
Nvidia ticked up roughly 0.5% in early premarket action Wednesday, ahead of its quarterly results set to land after the U.S. close. Stock index futures managed modest gains, with big tech names coming off a shaky period. With heavyweight tech firms targeting $630 billion in capital spending this year, investors want to see earnings that justify the outlays.
It’s been a shaky start. S&P 500 tech is off 3.5% this year; software stocks have borne the brunt, while semis have managed to avoid the worst, setting up Nvidia’s results as something bigger than just earnings. “Nvidia’s earnings matter because they are kind of the linchpin of the Mag Seven,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Reuters
Derivatives traders aren’t betting on much drama this time. Options are pricing in about a 5.6% move for Thursday, the day after results—marking the lowest implied post-earnings swing for any Nvidia report going back at least three years, according to ORATS. Chris Murphy, Susquehanna’s co-head of derivatives strategy, flagged the unusually low “event pricing.” Ken Mahoney, chief executive at Mahoney Asset Management, suggested the market may have already absorbed strong expectations, describing the setup as a “muted reaction.” Reuters
Talk about competition has been swirling before the results. On Tuesday, Advanced Micro Devices struck a deal to supply Meta Platforms with as much as $60 billion in AI chips over the next five years. Nvidia shares slipped roughly 1% following the news. “Meta is locking in supply, diversifying away from a single vendor,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Reuters
Nvidia wrapped up Tuesday trading at $192.85, up 0.9%. That price lifts the chipmaker’s market cap to roughly $4.53 trillion, LSEG data shows.
Nvidia’s outlook—and whatever management says about demand from its largest AI computing customers—will be closely watched, as the market debates whether the current spending surge is really fueling sustainable profit growth. The options market, mostly quiet, offers another signal. When options are this subdued, it often means investors see consensus on estimates and positioning, narrowing the window for unexpected moves.
Still, policy risk hasn’t gone away. On Tuesday, a U.S. Commerce Department official told a House hearing that so far, no Nvidia H200 chips—the company’s second-most advanced AI model—have reached Chinese buyers. The official also said that stopping chip smuggling into China remains a top enforcement goal. Nvidia, for its part, didn’t offer comment when Reuters asked.
Nvidia plans a Wednesday conference call to go over its fourth-quarter and full-year numbers, and CFO commentary will hit in writing before the call.
Traders are looking at a clear setup, but the results could go either way: Nvidia now stands in as the bellwether for AI momentum and a gauge of how investors feel about hefty mega-cap price tags. If the company delivers just a slight beat but guidance stays flat, that might not cut it. And with this year’s constant focus on AI payoffs, even a whiff of easing demand could hit especially hard.
All eyes now turn to Nvidia, which reports earnings after the bell and hosts a webcast at 2:00 p.m. PT. The initial reaction will start showing up in after-hours trading, with a fuller picture expected during Thursday’s cash session.
