New York, Feb 26, 2026, 06:36 ET — Premarket
- Nvidia stock nudges up in premarket trading after reporting quarterly numbers and issuing a strong revenue forecast.
- Attention turns to cash returns, exposure to China, and how concentrated the customer base is.
- Nvidia’s GTC developer event lands in mid-March, marking the next major catalyst.
Nvidia (NVDA.O) ticked up roughly 0.6% in Thursday’s premarket action, following a quarterly beat and an upbeat sales outlook tied to its AI chips. That wasn’t enough to budge U.S. stock index futures, which barely reacted. “Markets are now moving into a phase where they want to see tangible results of AI monetization,” said Raffi Boyadjian, lead market analyst at Trading Point. Later, investors are watching for the weekly U.S. jobless claims, with producer price figures on deck for Friday. 1
Nvidia isn’t just about one stock move anymore. For many, its numbers have turned into a proxy for how aggressively the largest tech names are shelling out for data center infrastructure—and if those budgets are actually translating into lasting gains.
Things have shifted. Even a classic “beat-and-raise” quarter barely moves the needle if the bar is already set high, and investors are pressing for evidence that AI spending won’t just burn cash.
Nvidia reported a 73% jump in revenue to $68.1 billion for the quarter ending Jan. 25, with data-center sales climbing 75% to $62.3 billion. The chipmaker is projecting first-quarter revenue at $78.0 billion, give or take 2%, and notes that its guidance doesn’t factor in any data-center compute revenue from China. Nvidia also plans to start counting stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP results, starting in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. 2
Nvidia shares barely budged in after-hours action, but the earnings call circled right back to a familiar point: cash returns. UBS’s Tim Arcuri pressed on whether Nvidia might return a bigger slice of the estimated $100 billion in cash generation for this year. CFO Colette Kress stuck to the company’s script, emphasizing ongoing investment in the AI ecosystem over larger payouts. Nvidia also noted it picked up U.S. licenses earlier this month for “small amounts” of H200 chip shipments to Chinese clients, and disclosed that just two customers made up 36% of fiscal 2026 revenue. 3
Nvidia handed back $41.1 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026, combining stock buybacks and dividends, with $58.5 billion still left in its buyback arsenal. The company also set its next quarterly dividend at $0.01, scheduled for payment on April 1 to shareholders recorded as of March 11. CEO Jensen Huang, in the earnings release, called this “the agentic AI inflection point” and highlighted Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin as Nvidia’s upcoming chips. 4
Nvidia ended Wednesday at $195.56, with shares moving in a range from $193.79 up to $197.63, stockanalysis.com data show. 5
Nvidia climbed 1.4% in early Frankfurt action Thursday, according to Reuters. Shares are almost 5% higher in New York since the start of the year, though the stock still hasn’t reclaimed the record it set back in October. 6
During the analyst call, Huang doubled down on Nvidia’s ambitions in CPUs, long the turf of Intel and AMD. “We love CPUs as well as GPUs,” he told analysts. The shift from AI model training to rolling out software “agents” is pushing more tasks onto CPUs, noted Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies. Huang also hinted at more details coming soon, saying Nvidia will share further plans for its CPU push at its annual developer event next month. 7
The risk side is clear enough. Nvidia’s forecast is still tethered to just a few giant customers. China’s export restrictions are still in play, and key clients are putting effort into lessening dependence—either by ramping up chip design internally or splitting their orders among more suppliers.
All eyes now shift to Nvidia, as traders wait to see if the stock’s early gains will hold once regular trading kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET. The real test comes later, though: Nvidia’s closely watched GTC conference lands in San Jose from March 16 to 19. CEO Huang is slated to unveil what’s next, detailing new products and strategic priorities. 8
