NEW YORK, Feb 24, 2026, 13:30 (EST) — Regular session
- Brent and WTI slipped, though both benchmarks hovered near their highest levels in months.
- Traders juggled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, fresh tariff headlines, and disruptions tied to supply.
- Shipping expenses and shifting export routes threw extra volatility into an already restless market.
Oil slipped a bit on Tuesday, holding just below seven-month highs as traders awaited cues from upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Brent crude edged down 25 cents to $71.24 a barrel by 10:41 a.m. EST, a 0.4% decline, while West Texas Intermediate also pared back 25 cents, or 0.4%, landing at $66.06. (Reuters)
Traders are still building in a risk premium as they weigh whether the next move is diplomacy or something worse. Brent crude closed Monday at $71.49 a barrel, slipping 27 cents. WTI dropped 17 cents to $66.31. “That seemed to suggest they are more open to talking about their nuclear program,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. For Bob Yawger at Mizuho, ongoing tariff uncertainty is “a disaster for the near future.” (Reuters)
Indirect talks brokered by Oman are scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, putting negotiators from Washington and Tehran back in the spotlight. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, pointed to “a positive push to go the extra mile.” Tehran, for its part, is sticking to demands: lifting sanctions and formal recognition of its “peaceful nuclear enrichment.” (Reuters)
On the demand front, Washington’s trade tensions are spreading. The U.S. slapped a temporary 10% global import tariff on Tuesday, according to a White House official, with plans underway to bump that up to 15%. For markets still trying to gauge the global growth picture, it’s another curveball from the Trump administration. (Reuters)
Security concerns are tangible. The State Department is withdrawing non-essential staff and eligible family members from the U.S. embassy in Beirut, trimming operations down to essential personnel after an assessment of local conditions. (Reuters)
Supply stories kept piling up. Trading firms and buyers have booked the first VLCCs—those giant tankers able to haul as much as 2 million barrels—to move Venezuelan crude, four sources and shipping data show, after the supply deal between Caracas and Washington kicked in. Larger loads should start moving faster from March, with more barrels likely headed for India, according to the report. (Reuters)
The Pentagon said U.S. forces have seized a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, tracing the vessel from Caribbean waters. This marks the third interdiction of its kind in the area, according to officials. (Reuters)
Freight costs are back in the oil narrative. Chartering a VLCC to move crude from the Middle East to China now runs more than $170,000 a day—over triple what it was at the start of the year, according to LSEG figures. “VLCC freight rates have seen many positive fundamental drivers,” said June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. Broker Clarksons, in a note, pointed out that the market “can reprice quickly on perceived risk” due to rising war-risk insurance premiums. (Reuters)
The list of available barrels is growing in other regions as well. Nigeria’s state-owned NNPC plans to begin shipments of a fresh light, sweet crude known as Cawthorne in March. Kpler analysts estimate this addition may push Nigeria’s crude and condensate output up to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day. (Reuters)
Banks are eyeing inventories closely and keeping tabs on geopolitical risks. Goldman Sachs bumped up its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast by $6, now at $60 a barrel, with WTI up to $56, pointing to tighter OECD stocks. Still, the bank’s call assumes no supply hit from Iran and sticks to its projection for a 2.3 million barrel per day surplus in 2026. (Reuters)
The Strait of Hormuz remains the big variable — call it risk or opportunity, depending on your position. About 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products pass through that tight corridor, almost 20% of the world’s supply, as Reuters columnist Ron Bousso pointed out. If flows get choked for any length of time, pressure lands squarely on strategic reserves like the U.S. SPR, which sat at roughly 415 million barrels in mid-February. (Reuters)
Coming up: the calendar item with traders’ attention. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s next Weekly Petroleum Status Report is set for Feb. 25, sticking to its usual Wednesday 10:30 a.m. Eastern release slot. After that, Thursday’s Geneva meeting takes the spotlight, now shaping up as this week’s key crude risk event. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
