HOUSTON, February 20, 2026, 12:34 (CST) — Regular session
Oil slipped a bit Friday, but prices hovered close to six-month peaks—Brent futures off 19 cents at $71.47 a barrel, U.S. WTI down 14 cents to $66.29 as of 11:36 a.m. CST. A U.S. Supreme Court decision on Trump’s emergency tariff powers had little effect on trading. Both contracts still showed a weekly gain of roughly 5.3%. 1
The main issue remains the standoff with Iran and the threat it poses to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows. “We’re caught in between anticipation … and denial an attack’s going to happen,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Traders are also following speculation that OPEC+ could open up supply from April, while betting that if a strike happens, it likely won’t hit until next week. 2
Trump on Friday floated the idea of a limited military strike against Iran, holding back specifics on what that might look like or when it could happen. When pressed about whether the move aimed to nudge Tehran toward a nuclear agreement, he said, “I guess I can say I am considering” it. 3
Oil prices surged into Thursday’s close, with Brent settling up 1.9% at $71.66 and WTI also jumping 1.9% to $66.43 — both marking their strongest finishes in roughly half a year. “The market will continue to rally in anticipation of something happening,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Trump set what looked like a 10-day window for striking a deal, while Iran pushed ahead with a planned joint naval exercise with Russia, coming off a brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz during its recent drills. 4
U.S. crude stockpiles dropped sharply by 9 million barrels to 419.8 million for the week ending Feb. 13, the Energy Information Administration reported, defying forecasts that called for a 2.1-million-barrel build. “Massive draws across the board and stronger U.S. oil demand,” according to UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. 5
Speculators are snapping up more Brent call options—those are contracts that benefit if prices move higher—Saxo Bank analysis shows, according to brokers. “Market focus has clearly shifted to escalating Middle East tensions,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. 6
OPEC has confirmed that eight OPEC+ nations—those responsible for the group’s monthly market reviews—are set to meet again on March 1. The timing stands out: just the hint of a shift in their supply strategy can jolt crude prices, regardless of whether any oil changes hands that day. 7
The rally is once again hitting a familiar snag: oversupply. JP Morgan’s Natasha Kaneva and Lyuba Savinova noted their numbers still signal “sizable surpluses later this year.” They said a reduction of 2 million barrels per day would be necessary just to prevent unwanted inventory builds in 2027. 8
All eyes shift to next week’s U.S. data slate, plus whatever new developments might emerge out of Washington or Tehran. The EIA will issue its next weekly petroleum status update on Feb. 25, following Thursday’s numbers. 9
