New York, Feb 18, 2026, 13:49 EST — Regular session
- Brent jumped roughly 3.5% to trade near $69.80, while WTI saw a 3.8% rise, hovering around $64.72 by midday in New York.
- Headlines out of Iran’s drills and a lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations have pushed supply risks back onto the radar.
- Traders are watching U.S. inventory numbers and eyeing central bank cues as they wait for the market’s next move.
Oil jumped more than 3% Wednesday after Iranian state media said sections of the Strait of Hormuz were temporarily closed for military drills, and Fars, a semi-official outlet, reported Iran and Russia plan joint naval exercises Thursday. Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva didn’t yield progress. Brent crude traded up $2.38, or 3.53%, at $69.80 a barrel as of 12:09 p.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate added $2.39, or 3.83%, reaching $64.72. “The big moves in oil prices today are being solely driven by geopolitics,” Lipow Oil Associates president Andrew Lipow said. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop commented, “Iran has time to negotiate in calmness.” (Reuters)
This kind of whipsaw is landing on a market that’s been relying heavily on supply figures and demand predictions—only to shrug them off the moment a headline drops. Traders? They’re tacking on a geopolitical “risk premium,” padding prices by a few dollars just in case tankers or barrels end up stuck or sent the long way around.
Brent dropped 1.8% on Tuesday, closing at $67.42 a barrel, while WTI shed 0.9% to $62.33. Iran announced it had come to an understanding with the United States on the basic framework of nuclear negotiations, though officials downplayed prospects for any swift resolution. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Several OPEC exporters rely on that chokepoint—most of their crude heads to Asia. “Sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals,” are likely to keep oil choppy, said Sugandha Sachdeva, who heads SS WealthStreet. (Reuters)
That’s exactly why just a brief window of doubt in the strait is enough to jolt front-month futures. The front-month contract—the one closest to delivery—usually gets hit first.
Positioning is another, less visible force shaping price action. If traders end up offside, that can push the move past what the actual barrels would warrant—even if just for a session.
Broader markets looked to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting minutes, due out Wednesday, with traders watching moves in the dollar and bond yields. While the Fed doesn’t directly control oil prices, changes in interest rates and the value of the U.S. currency can sway how expensive it is to hold commodities—and affect risk appetite. (Reuters)
Focus shifts to U.S. inventory data—one of the market’s immediate supply indicators. A hefty build could halt rallies fast, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration plans to publish its weekly petroleum status report on Thursday, Feb. 19, after the closure of federal offices on Monday. (EIA)
Macquarie strategists expect U.S. crude inventories to climb by 5.4 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 13, after an 8.5 million-barrel increase the previous week. “Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility,” they wrote in a note quoted by Rigzone. (Rigzone)
The risk cuts both ways here. Should the Strait of Hormuz remain open and talks between negotiators continue, that added risk premium could vanish quickly—leaving crude prices vulnerable to swings in inventories and whatever the macro environment has in store.
Thursday brings the U.S. stockpile report, a key focus for traders eyeing fresh cues from Washington and Tehran. Gulf shipping headlines could end up shaping sentiment heading into the next settlement.
