New York, March 2, 2026, 13:30 ET — Regular session
- Brent crude futures tacked on roughly 6%, trading near $77 a barrel, while U.S. WTI edged past $70.
- Disrupted Gulf shipping and stricter insurance terms near the Strait of Hormuz grabbed traders’ attention.
- This week, markets have their eyes on tanker flow shifts, the OPEC+ supply response, and fresh U.S. inventory numbers.
Oil surged Monday. Brent crude futures jumped $4.25, or 5.8%, landing at $77.12 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced $3.54, up 5.3%, to settle at $70.56. 1
This isn’t just a headline move: with traffic slowing through the Strait of Hormuz—the vital passageway between Iran and Oman that handles about 20% of global oil—insurers are getting skittish and tightening up. “Underwriters” are “increasing rates,” according to David Smith, head of marine at broker McGill and Partners, and some are flat-out “declining to offer terms.” 2
Supply worries grew, with several facilities in the region shutting down as a precaution. Qatar suspended liquefied natural gas production and QatarEnergy was on the verge of declaring force majeure after drone strikes hit the Ras Laffan site. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery has also been taken offline for safety, according to Reuters. “Gulf energy infrastructure” is “now squarely in Iran’s sights,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. 3
Even before a full market open, traders were already baking in the supply threat. Brent surged nearly 10%, reaching around $80 a barrel in Sunday’s over-the-counter action, according to oil traders. “The key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 4
OPEC+ opted to bump up supply, but markets barely blinked. The group signed off on a 206,000 barrel-a-day increase for April. “Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis. 5
Analysts are framing the next few days as a gauge for both the duration of the disruption and the volume of oil able to get through. Citi expects Brent to hover somewhere between $80 and $90 for the coming week. Goldman Sachs put the real-time “risk premium” — the extra cost baked in by traders for disruption — at roughly $18 per barrel. On top of that, JPMorgan pointed to a collapse in crude exports through the strait, from around 16 million bpd to just 4 million. Bernstein bumped its 2026 Brent forecast up to $80, previously $65, and said prices could shoot as high as $120-$150 if the conflict drags. 6
Officials in Washington haven’t broached the idea of releasing emergency reserves yet. The Trump administration isn’t weighing a Strategic Petroleum Reserve sale right now, a U.S. source told Reuters. The SPR currently contains roughly 415.4 million barrels. 7
The oil surge isn’t just rattling energy traders—rates and currency markets are feeling the heat, too, as fresh inflation jitters return. Economists, according to Reuters, figure that if crude sticks $10 higher per barrel, U.S. inflation could climb by as much as 0.2 percentage point for the year. That kind of move could throw a wrench into forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts. 8
Still, there’s a clear way out of this trade. Should tanker traffic pick up and Gulf facilities recover more rapidly than expected, that built-in war premium could vanish in a hurry, exposing crude to steep drops.
Traders looking for clues on where things go next are eyeing U.S. inventory data, with the American Petroleum Institute’s latest crude stockpile numbers due Tuesday, followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status update at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. 9
Looking ahead, the next significant update on demand and supply projections lands with the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, set for release March 10. 10
