NEW YORK, Feb 17, 2026, 12:47 PM EST — Regular session
- Oil dropped, with traders easing up on Middle East supply concerns after U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
- Traders are watching OPEC+ production plans and ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks for clues on where the market heads next.
- The market’s still fixated on shipping risks clustered around the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil tumbled Tuesday, with Brent dropping toward its lowest point in two weeks after Iran pointed to headway in nuclear negotiations with the U.S. By 11:50 a.m. EST, Brent crude was off $1.41, or 2.1%, to $67.24 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shed 65 cents, or 1.0%, settling at $62.24, after a volatile session of ups and downs.
This slide is notable; crude’s been carrying what traders call a “war premium”—extra dollars tacked on as worries swirl about sanctions, attacks, or a sudden Gulf supply hit. Take away some of that fear, even for a moment, and prices snap lower in a hurry.
All that tension narrows at the Strait of Hormuz. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures, some 20 million barrels of oil moved through the strait each day in 2024—about a fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.
Brent finished Monday up 1.33% at $68.65, with traders staking out positions before the Geneva talks kicked off. The market’s looking at more supply coming in the spring. SEB analysts said, “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel.” OPEC+—that’s OPEC and Russia’s partners—leans toward ramping up output from April, pending a March 1 meeting. Reuters
Following Tuesday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told local outlets there’s “a general agreement on some guiding principles,” though he dismissed any suggestion a deal was imminent. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi echoed the sentiment, saying “much work is yet to be done” but noting “clear next steps.” Meanwhile, Iranian state media said Revolutionary Guards drills would lead to a temporary closure of part of the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
Every update from Geneva is moving prices, traders say. “Market sentiment is closely tied to the tone and progress of these negotiations, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in prices,” noted Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet. ETAuto.com
Outside the Gulf, traders still have the Russia-Ukraine war on their radar as another potential supply disruptor, not to mention ongoing sanctions uncertainty. Local officials reported a drone strike ignited a blaze at Russia’s Ilsky refinery in the Krasnodar region, damaging an oil-products tank. The plant handles roughly 138,000 barrels a day.
Russian attacks hit Ukraine’s power grid just before fresh U.S.-backed Geneva talks between Kyiv and Moscow, knocking out electricity and heat to tens of thousands and killing three energy workers, according to Ukrainian officials. DTEK, the private power company, described the destruction near Odesa as “incredibly serious.” Reuters
Several banks are starting to outline scenarios for a retreat in prices if diplomatic efforts make progress. Citi, for one, is calling for Iran and Russia-Ukraine agreements “by or during the summer”—its base case—which, the bank says, could send Brent down to $60-$62 a barrel and trim diesel and gasoline “cracks,” or refining margins, by $5-$10. Reuters
Yet those channels could just as easily reverse. If talks falter—or if there’s even a whiff of prolonged fighting or persistent disruption near Hormuz—the barrel market’s risk premium would snap right back.
Attention shifts to incoming catalysts—weekly U.S. crude and fuel inventory figures land Feb. 19, and the market’s watching for clues on OPEC+ moves regarding potential output hikes from April.
