Houston, Feb 25, 2026, 13:02 CST — Regular session
- Brent slipped to around $70.65 a barrel, while U.S. WTI edged down near $65.37.
- U.S. crude stocks surged by 16 million barrels last week, according to EIA data.
- U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva are set for Feb. 26, with traders keeping tabs, and attention also fixed on the OPEC+ gathering scheduled for March 1.
Oil slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a hefty increase in U.S. crude inventories that chipped away at the Middle East risk premium. Brent dropped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.65 a barrel as of 11:16 a.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 26 cents, roughly 0.4%, to trade at $65.37. “A bearish report with a large crude build,” said UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, who noted geopolitics continue to steer the market. 1
This build is notable, dropping just as traders have been putting a premium on supply risk. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude inventories jumped 16.0 million barrels to 435.8 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 20. Refineries dialed back runs, but imports climbed. Gasoline inventories came down by 1.0 million barrels, while distillates edged up 0.3 million. The EIA also reported “products supplied”—its demand stand-in—averaged 21.4 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, marking a 5.4% increase from the same stretch last year. 2
Just a day before, the American Petroleum Institute reported its own hefty crude build, setting traders up for a potential miss in the official data. Their estimate? An 11.4 million-barrel jump for that week—well ahead of what analysts had penciled in, according to the data provider. 3
The EIA report tossed in another curveball: its “adjustment” factor—the balancing entry used to square measured flows with inventory shifts—jumped to a record 2.7 million barrels per day. That’s not a small move, and it’s adding fresh static for traders already dealing with a volatile tape. Sharp swings in that adjustment line often leave the market hesitant to put too much weight on just one week’s crude build. 4
Supply jitters persist. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told reporters Tuesday that a deal with the United States was “within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority.” U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva for talks on Thursday. 5
Crude found support this week as Washington sharpened its rhetoric. U.S. President Donald Trump, during his State of the Union address on Tuesday, declared he won’t permit Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and slammed the country’s leaders and proxies as “murderous.” Meanwhile, U.S. military presence in the region is on the rise. 6
OPEC+ will soon decide whether to resume boosting output, according to three sources who spoke with Reuters. The alliance is weighing a possible production hike of 137,000 barrels per day for April, after holding steady for the past three months. Eight members are scheduled to meet March 1. 7
Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s largest oil producer, has sketched out a backup plan as tensions with Iran escalate. According to two people with knowledge of the plan, the kingdom is ramping up both production and exports to protect against a potential supply disruption if U.S. strikes threaten the region’s oil flows. 8
Traders are still weighing macro concerns, with fresh U.S. tariffs unveiled this week adding uncertainty around growth and energy demand. Earlier, crude rallied to multi-month highs on Middle East developments—even as risk assets elsewhere showed little direction. 9
The bear case is straightforward: rising U.S. crude inventories, driven by sluggish refinery demand and higher imports, make the market’s buffer appear more comfortable, which could quickly erode any geopolitical premium. On the other hand, if talks collapse or fresh worries emerge over flows through the Gulf, traders are likely to bump supply risk back into prices fast—weekly inventory shifts won’t matter much then.
The focus shifts to Thursday, when U.S. and Iranian officials sit down in Geneva. OPEC+ ministers meet March 1. Then comes the fresh U.S. petroleum data on March 4; traders will be watching that report to see if this week’s crude inventory rise turns out to be an outlier or marks the beginning of a pattern. 10
