SYDNEY, June 24, 2026, 09:05 AEST
Origin Energy heads into Wednesday up for two straight sessions, outpacing a softer market and crude prices. By one simple ownership measure, its stake in Kraken, an energy software group, is about 15% of Origin’s A$18.6 billion value. That gives the stock some exposure beyond just LNG.
Origin wrapped up Tuesday at A$10.80, gaining 0.47% since Friday’s close. The S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.47% in that stretch, putting Origin 0.94 percentage point ahead. Woodside Energy dropped 1.31%. Santos ticked up 0.14%. The ASX sat in pre-open; regular trading was set to kick off just before 10 a.m.
Energy shares dropped after WTI crude traded under $74, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said once Tuesday’s trading wrapped. Origin didn’t move much, but Sycamore called out its different path while most other energy stocks slid with oil.
Kraken’s latest standalone raise set its value at US$8.65 billion. Origin’s 22.7% economic stake translates to US$1.96 billion. With Tuesday’s exchange rate of A$1 to US$0.6915, that’s roughly A$2.84 billion. That amounts to 15.3% of Origin’s A$18.61 billion market cap. This is a “look-through” estimate — the stake times the deal value — not cash on hand for shareholders. Origin Energy
Octopus Energy, which is 22.7% owned by Origin, launched its Nook home-battery line on June 22. The new batteries are set to go out to customers in the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain in 2027. “Home batteries are a brilliant piece of tech and one of the smartest ways to cut energy bills right now,” Octopus CEO Greg Jackson said. The company did not share pricing. Octopus Energy
Origin’s new battery isn’t expected to move near-term earnings much by itself. What’s clearer is Octopus’s push to tie its hardware to smart electricity tariffs, as Kraken runs the software for customer accounts and energy management. So Origin stays a domestic utility with LNG cash but also a large private tech stake. The shares don’t have to track spot oil prices closely.
Origin’s two-day move hasn’t shifted the longer slide. Shares are still down 6.1% in 2026. Its peer AGL Energy dropped 7.5%, pointing to continued caution in the big power retailer names. Investors aren’t giving Origin much credit for its recent edge.
Origin’s domestic unit gives the company some backing. In February, Origin boosted its fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA outlook for Energy Markets up to A$1.55 billion to A$1.75 billion, raised from the earlier A$1.40 billion to A$1.70 billion range. EBITDA is the group’s operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Origin’s 15% Kraken figure comes from a private funding round and uses Tuesday’s currency rate. In April, Origin reported APLNG revenue dropped 17% on the year for the quarter. It also trimmed fiscal 2026 Octopus earnings guidance to a range of A$70 million loss to A$30 million profit. CEO Frank Calabria said: “Changes in oil prices have a lagged effect on Australia Pacific LNG’s long-term export contracts.” Vantage Markets analyst Hebe Chen said: “The market is selling the near-term signal.” Reuters
