Augsburg, May 4, 2026, 19:06 CEST
RENK Group is set to report first-quarter numbers on May 6, with the market looking for about €585 million in new orders. The bigger question: can the German defence supplier actually convert that record-level demand into real cash? Börse Global, referencing mwb research, flagged that analysts anticipate order intake for the quarter will land well above the firm’s usual run-rate targets.
This comes as Germany ramps up defence spending at a clip unseen in recent years. Berlin just signed off on headline 2027 budget targets, planning to boost core defence outlays to €105.8 billion from €82.7 billion in 2026. Factor in special funds and support for Ukraine, and total defence spending lands at €144.9 billion—3.1% of GDP.
RENK is getting a significant lift from the spending surge. Still, with European defence stocks cooling off since spring—investors have begun to rethink both valuations and where future weapons orders might land—there’s now far less tolerance for slip-ups.
RENK wrapped up 2025 with record highs: revenue hit €1.37 billion, adjusted EBIT landed at €230 million, and orders reached €1.57 billion, pushing the backlog up to €6.68 billion. CEO Alexander Sagel pointed to the company’s defence focus as “paying off.” Looking to 2026, RENK expects revenue topping €1.5 billion and adjusted EBIT between €255 million and €285 million. Renk
Free cash flow is where things get sticky — that’s the money RENK has after covering its operations and investments. According to the company’s numbers, free cash flow lands at €67 million for 2025, alongside net working capital of €345 million and net debt sitting at €391 million. During its capital markets day, RENK said it’s targeting about 80% cash conversion over the medium term, aiming to turn more of its earnings directly into cash.
Sagel is framing the issue as one of timing—not vanishing demand. In March, Reuters noted several naval and R&D programs were pushed into 2026. Sagel told the outlet, “these programmes are not lost.” Export restrictions dragged on the fourth quarter too, especially for shipments tied to Israel. Reuters
RENK is shifting more of its production footprint beyond Germany. Back in February, the company announced plans to pour $70 million into capital expenditures and earmark another $80 million for R&D in Michigan between 2024 and 2030. That move could add as many as 270 jobs. Sagel called RENK a “trusted supplier to the U.S. military and allied forces,” emphasizing the company’s ongoing commitment. Renk
The shareholder breakdown makes the split in sentiment around the stock clear. Wellington Management hit the 5% mark back on March 27, disclosing a 5.09% stake with voting rights. Short interest is also stacking up: Shortregister data from the Bundesanzeiger put total declared short positions at 3.67% of RENK as of May 4, with AQR Capital Management responsible for 2.38%.
There’s still optimism from some analysts. According to MarketScreener, which referenced dpa-AFX Analyser, JPMorgan’s David H. Perry reiterated his Buy on RENK on April 29, sticking with a €75 target. The same source listed the shares finishing Monday’s Xetra session at €54.40, an uptick of 0.8%.
Peer comparisons aren’t perfect, but they matter. Take Rheinmetall: the bigger German defence player just locked in a multibillion-euro framework deal to deliver FV-014 drones to the German army, with shipments starting in the first half of 2027. For investors, it’s another data point as they weigh demand for heavy vehicles against the faster pace of drone and air-defence contracts.
There’s a risk here: orders could keep piling up, but if advance payments drag or new export restrictions kick in, RENK’s backlog might fall short—especially if buyers funnel more money into drones and electronics. Aarin Chiekrie, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, flagged to Reuters that global defence shares have already baked in expectations for bigger budgets, which could leave them vulnerable if anticipated growth gets ahead of reality.
So Wednesday’s statement doubles as both a look at cash flow and an update on orders. Management heads to Frankfurt for a Berenberg roadshow the following day, leaving investors only a narrow window to weigh whether that €585 million order figure lines up with any improvement in working capital and transparency on collections.
