Rio Tinto inches higher, analysts see lithium driving 2% of 2026 EBITDA
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Rio Tinto inches higher, analysts see lithium driving 2% of 2026 EBITDA

June 25, 2026
by

LONDON, June 25, 2026, 12:08 BST

  • Shares last at 7,180p, up 0.3% but still 1.2% under Tuesday’s close
  • Lithium target is 200,000 tonnes for 2028, up from at least 61,000 tonnes expected this year
  • Analysts see lithium making up 2.3% of underlying EBITDA in 2026

Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) traded at 7,180 pence, a gain of 0.3%, during delayed dealing in London. Shares remained down 1.2% from Tuesday’s £72.64 finish. That still leaves about £1.4 billion in market cap missing, using AJ Bell’s £116.75 billion figure and assuming the share count hasn’t changed.

FTSE 100 climbed 0.3% at 0901 GMT. Financials outperformed. Retail updates gave some support to shares.

Rio is looking for its lithium unit to outpace the rest. The miner targets at least 61,000 tonnes of lithium production this year, with plans to scale up to 200,000 tonnes by 2028 if demand justifies the move. “We want to show that we can build on time and on budget,” said Jérôme Pécresse, who leads aluminium and lithium at the company. Reuters

Near-term profits at Rio are still from other divisions. A company poll of analysts dated May 18 showed 2026 iron ore EBITDA at $14.62 billion, copper at $9.59 billion, aluminium at $6.20 billion. Lithium was just $688 million. Lithium only makes up 2.2% of product-group EBITDA and 2.3% of total underlying EBITDA on those numbers. Analysts in the survey forecast 84,000 tonnes of lithium output in 2027, which is less than half of Rio’s stated 2028 capacity target.

Demand is picking up. Fastmarkets puts lithium demand for battery storage growth at 40% a year. “The period of market overcorrection is over,” CEO Raju Daswani said. Pécresse expects demand in the next two years to be more balanced between electric vehicles and energy storage. Reuters

Rio spent $6.7 billion to buy Arcadium Lithium in March 2025, funding the deal with a bridge loan intended for later refinancing with longer-term debt. Both Arcadium’s assets and Rincon are now held inside Rio Tinto Lithium.

Rio closed out 2025 carrying $14.36 billion in net debt, climbing $8.87 billion over the year. Free cash flow slid 28% to $4.03 billion. Spending on property, plant and intangibles was up 28% to $12.34 billion. That ups the stakes for overruns or delays.

Rio Tinto is set to release its Q2 operations review July 15 and first-half results July 29. Investors will get the first solid update on lithium production and project costs for the 2028 plan.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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