Santos shares slide 9% over the week as oil risk premium slips

Santos shares slide 9% over the week as oil risk premium slips

June 18, 2026

Sydney, June 19, 2026, 06:06 (AEST)

  • Santos shares finished Thursday at A$7.33, slipping 0.4% on the day. The stock has fallen 9.2% since June 11.
  • Oil slipped close to where it was before the war after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim deal, which allowed ships to move again through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Santos named Kate Vidgen as independent non-executive director, with her appointment taking effect on June 17, according to its latest corporate disclosure.

Santos Limited shares are set to open in Sydney on Friday, after slipping 9.2% since June 11. The stock ended Thursday at A$7.33, off 0.4%. The ASX cash market was closed at the cutoff and will reopen later Friday.

Santos is facing a different market discussion after oil’s supply-risk premium started to fade. The Australian oil and gas producer is now back to trading on project delivery and debt reduction, as the retreat in prices has shifted the immediate story.

Oil prices slipped Thursday as Brent crude dropped 2.3% to $77.69 a barrel. Traders responded to the U.S.-Iran deal and the possible return of shipping through Hormuz. “The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes the big risk premium that had been baked into crude,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Reuters

Woodside Energy shares shed 2.9% to finish at A$28.62. The S&P/ASX 200 moved down 0.62% Thursday. Santos, hit hard this week, managed only a small bounce after Monday’s 8.4% drop. Pressure was not limited to Santos.

Santos named a new board member in its latest filing, not an operating update. Kate Vidgen joins after 26 years at Macquarie Group and also chaired Quadrant Energy before Santos bought it in 2018. Chair Keith Spence called her experience “a significant asset to the Board.” MarketScreener

Santos shares were quoted at A$7.45 right after the appointment notice, then settled at A$7.33 on Thursday. The move doesn’t establish cause and effect, but crude and energy names were making more noise in the market.

Santos is counting on two key production ramps now. The Pikka phase one project in Alaska hit first oil in May and should reach gross output of 80,000 barrels a day in the third quarter. First sales revenue is likely two to three months after first oil. Barossa LNG and Pikka together back the company’s 2026 production forecast of 101 million to 111 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from 87.7 million expected in 2025.

Santos wants to use higher production to fix its balance sheet, aiming to cut net debt by about US$2.5 billion by 2030 and slash annual costs by US$300 million from 2027 for three years. “This is exactly what a company coming off peak project spend should do: harvest cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet,” said Mark Gardner, founder and CEO of MPC Markets. Reuters

But the direction isn’t set. If Gulf exports normalise faster, that could lift supply and hit Santos’ prices. A failed U.S.-Iran deal might bring back the oil premium and boost shipping risk. Goldman Sachs sees Gulf exports getting back to pre-war levels by the end of July, but Bank of America flagged that mine-clearing could drag on for months.

Australian markets open Friday with U.S. cash equity trading shut for Juneteenth. That could put the focus on crude futures and the Australian dollar for traders watching real-time moves. For Santos, more production is only part of the story. The real question is if output growth can turn into free cash flow, after covering both operating and capital expenses, and not just pump out extra barrels.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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