London, June 25, 2026, 10:06 BST
- Shell Plc (LON:SHEL) slipped 0.7% to 2,926 pence with Brent futures down 1.4% at $72.68.
- Shell shares are down 9.1% since June 12. Brent crude is off 16.8% over the same period.
- ARC Resources Ltd (TSE:ARX) is changing hands near C$30.29 a share, about 7.6% under the announced offer.
Shell Plc (LON:SHEL) dropped 0.7% to 2,926 pence Thursday morning at 1000 BST. The FTSE 100 gained 0.28%. Brent for August slipped 1.44% to $72.68 by 0639 GMT, marking the weakest price since February 27.
Shell shares are down 9.1% since closing at 3,220.5p on June 12, the day the company paused its buyback. Brent crude has fallen 16.8% from its $87.33 settlement that session. Shell’s slide works out to around 55% of the decline in crude.
The 7.6-point gap is key since Shell is paying for most of the ARC deal in shares. With the stock now driving a big chunk of what ARC holders end up getting, Shell’s price matters.
At least 20 million barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the past day, with tanker flows edging near pre-war rates. “The speed of this decline has caught plenty off guard,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Group Holdings Plc (LON:IGG). August Brent slipped under September Brent, indicating enough supply in the near term. Reuters
Brent could average $67 in the third quarter, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) analysts said. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said Iranian production and exports may pick up in “weeks rather than months” if sanctions are rolled back. Reuters
ARC shareholders get C$8.20 in cash and 0.40247 Shell shares per ARC share. That works out to about C$30.29 a share, using Shell’s Thursday close and a sterling-Canadian dollar rate of 1.876052. The value has slipped from C$32.80 at the time of the deal announcement. ARC’s 30-day volume-weighted average price premium has dropped to around 10.5%, from 20% earlier.
ARC ended Wednesday at C$29.94. The deal spread is roughly 1.2%. That’s a slim gap, suggesting traders don’t see much risk the deal falls through, but ARC holders still need to vote.
Fixed exchange ratio means Shell’s dilution isn’t tied to deal value. Shell will issue about 228 million new shares, or around 4% of its current outstanding shares, under the terms. If Shell’s stock price drops, ARC holders get less value, but the exchange ratio stays the same.
Shell put its $3 billion buyback on hold through July 14 due to securities-law requirements linked to the transaction. Shares not bought will carry into future programmes in 2026, pending board approval. Shell’s pause has taken its own buybacks out of the market as oil prices slid.
Shell’s most recent earnings help explain why its shares sometimes move less than oil. The company posted $6.92 billion in adjusted earnings for the first quarter. Chemicals and Products, covering refining and trading, made $1.93 billion, above the $450 million from the same period last year. Shell said its integrated gas production might drop up to 36% in the second quarter.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan said June 10 it could take as long as a year or more to bring oil markets back in balance after deep inventory declines. ARC shareholders are slated to vote July 14, with the measure needing two-thirds backing.
