LONDON, March 30, 2026, 12:06 BST
Shell Plc climbed 1.3% in Monday’s London session, tracking Brent’s surge as the benchmark crude eyed its biggest monthly jump ever. Investors are upping their expectations for a stronger first quarter from Shell’s oil and LNG trading desks. LNG—natural gas chilled to liquid for transport—remains central to the business. TotalEnergies gained 1.8% alongside, helping send Europe’s energy index to an all-time peak.
The clock is ticking for Shell, which is set to release its quarterly update on April 8. Analysts are getting bullish—three of them have bumped up their first-quarter net profit forecasts by around 15% on average. “The first quarter is going to be phenomenal for these companies,” Roth Capital Partners’ Leo Mariani said. Reuters
Europe is shifting gears from market turbulence to potential action. EU energy ministers are set for a video call Tuesday, eyeing joint measures after Shell CEO Wael Sawan flagged last week that Europe could start seeing shortages by April. “Countries cannot have national security without energy security,” Sawan noted. Jet fuel’s already feeling the pinch, he said—diesel might be on the line next. Reuters
Shell’s exposure to gas is drawing the sharpest focus right now. “The gas price ramp has been the most important takeaway for markets,” Jefferies’ Mike Wilson said. Over at Bernstein, Irene Himona noted that Europe would need to outbid Asia for U.S. cargoes to secure extra supply. Shell—still the top global LNG dealer—remains a favored play for investors, alongside Norway’s Equinor. Reuters
The tone here is noticeably tougher than back in February. Shell posted a fourth-quarter net profit of $3.3 billion—coming in under estimates—but it stuck with its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback and bumped the dividend up 4%, keeping up sizable cash payouts. Over the past four years, the company has repurchased roughly a quarter of its shares.
Longer term, things look shakier. Back in February, Shell and several analysts flagged that the company’s reserve life had dropped under eight years—compare that to Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies, both sitting above 12 years. The dwindling figure is forcing Shell to hunt for new barrels, whether by drilling, buying, or some mix of both.
Bullish momentum faces a hurdle here. Shell disclosed earlier this month that fixing train two at its Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar—a facility converting gas to fuels—will take roughly a year, following Iranian attacks. Train one escaped damage.
Markets remain jittery. Brent hovered near $114.99 a barrel on Monday, capping a 59% jump in March—Reuters notes that’s never happened before in a single month. Shell’s outlook gets a short-term lift, but should a ceasefire emerge or the Strait of Hormuz reopen, those gains could disappear fast.
