London, March 12, 2026, 13:17 GMT
- Shell’s Amsterdam shares edged 0.25% higher to 37.66 euros in late trade. Brent crude, after an earlier surge past $100 a barrel, showed a 7.08% gain. 1
- Shell dropped its 2025 annual report on Thursday, just a day after news broke via Reuters that the company declared force majeure for some Qatari LNG cargoes. 2
- Some analysts think tapping into emergency oil reserves could ease the pressure, though they caution that any relief will be short-lived if the situation near the Strait of Hormuz persists. 3
Shell shares nudged up on Thursday—though not nearly as much as crude prices. Investors appeared to be balancing the oil gains against new pressure in Shell’s gas segment, plus a broader downturn in European stocks. 1
This is hitting now because Shell’s pitch to investors centers on cash returns. When oil and gas prices climb, operating cash flow gets a boost—fueling buybacks and dividends. But that same surge is jolting markets, fanning rate fears, and making it tougher for the world’s largest LNG trader to secure fuel. 4
Shell on Thursday released its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts, confirming it would submit its 2025 Form 20-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission the same day. According to Reuters, the latest annual report reveals profit for 2025 dropped to roughly $18.5 billion—a slide of more than 20% from 2024. Still, the company stuck with its buyback and dividend policies. The board also highlighted that Shell’s shareholder returns have beaten rivals in recent years. 2
Reuters said the day before that Shell declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and supplies globally, after Qatar shut down its 77 million-tonnes-per-year facility. The move, a legal step for unforeseen disruptions that releases companies from their contracts, follows the production halt. Sources told Reuters March shipments aren’t impacted, with any fallout expected in April. TotalEnergies was also among those getting force majeure notices from Qatar, though, according to a source familiar with the details, it hasn’t issued one itself. 5
Oil markets kept their attention locked on the larger supply shock. Brent surged $4.90 to trade at $96.88 a barrel as of 1107 GMT, having earlier breached the $100 mark. The International Energy Agency called the Middle East conflict the biggest oil-supply disruption modern markets have seen. Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ, warned the IEA’s reserve release might end up just a stopgap if the Hormuz bottleneck drags on. 3
There’s at least one bright spot for Shell. On March 10, Reuters reported that Shell-led LNG Canada stepped up exports to Asia this month as regional gas supplies got tighter, sending all cargoes to Asian buyers. “Full capacity”—that’s what Martin King at RBN Energy called it, saying the project was pushing hard to load up more LNG and capture elevated local prices. 6
Things looked rougher across the broader market. By 1057 GMT, the FTSE 100 had slipped 0.4%. “The longer the disruption goes on,” AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson said, the more it weighs on energy prices, inflation, and interest rates. That’s a big part of why Shell shares haven’t kept pace with the jump in crude. 7
Bulls, take note: there’s a wrinkle here. Goldman Sachs now sees Brent averaging $98 a barrel for March and April, but then dropping back to $71 in the fourth quarter—this is their base case, and that’s after they lifted their forecast to factor in a longer Hormuz disruption. Russ Mould at AJ Bell told Reuters on Wednesday that a reserve release “could make little difference” if the supply pinch drags on. 8
Shell’s got some padding from investors for now. Back in February, the company bumped its quarterly dividend up 4% to $0.372 per share, rolled out a new $3.5 billion buyback, and logged at least $3 billion in buybacks for 17 quarters running. Strong crude prices keep that cushion in place. But if oil loses steam, traders could shift right back to focusing on profit squeeze instead of geopolitical headlines. 4
