LONDON, March 13, 2026, 13:09 GMT
Shell shares climbed 1.3% to lead a lagging FTSE 100 by 1058 GMT, getting a lift as crude hovered just shy of $100 a barrel. Thursday saw the stock jump 2.59% to finish at 3,328 pence; BP moved higher too, with buyers coming for the whole sector. 1
This is crucial now, with Shell still counting on buybacks and dividends to bolster its equity story after a stretch of softer earnings. The group missed profit forecasts for the fourth quarter back in February but stuck to its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback, pushing total payouts to 52% of operating cash flow over the last four quarters—above its own target. Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman called that range “sacrosanct.” 2
Investors have fresh concerns about gas supply disruptions. Shell—still the biggest player in global LNG trading—declared force majeure on Qatari LNG shipments this week, according to three sources, after Qatar paused production at its massive 77 million-tonne-per-year LNG facility. That contract clause, force majeure, lets Shell off the hook for obligations if circumstances spiral out of their hands. Analysts put Shell’s intake at 6.8 million tonnes of Qatari LNG annually. For now, March cargoes look safe, but starting in April, interruptions are expected. TotalEnergies and a handful of others are also reportedly tangled in the stoppage. 3
Oil’s tone has shifted decisively. On Friday, Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent forecast—now looking for an average above $100 a barrel in March. Brent’s May contract was changing hands at $100.13 early in the day, after spiking to $119.50 earlier this week—the highest mark since mid-2022. 4
But trading remains jumpy with each new headline. Brent dropped 0.9% to $99.54 as of 1234 GMT after an India-flagged tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz and Washington announced measures aimed at loosening supply, though the contract is still tracking for an 8% weekly rise—a sign that even modest shipping relief could quickly sap buying under Shell. “This dip should be viewed as short-lived,” said PVM’s Tamas Varga. 5
Shell’s annual report landed Thursday, offering fresh figures for investors to chew on. The company’s 2025 emissions held steady near 1.1 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent, according to both Shell’s report and Reuters calculations. The board plans to seek shareholder approval on May 19 for a higher maximum pay package for Chief Executive Wael Sawan, after his pay reached 13.8 million pounds for 2025. 6
Shell isn’t done trimming its lineup. On Monday, the company announced plans to offload Jiffy Lube International and Premium Velocity Auto. Downstream boss Machteld de Haan pointed to a chance for Shell to “reinvest in opportunities that generate higher returns” after the sale. 7
Even with crude prices lending support, Shell’s longer-term growth remains unresolved. Analysts—and Shell itself—point to a looming shortfall of 350,000 to 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035. Plugging that hole likely demands either a substantial deal or a major exploration success, underscoring that the current geopolitical price surge doesn’t settle the underlying reserves question. 8
