LONDON, March 5, 2026, 17:51 GMT
Silver dropped 1.9% to $81.83 an ounce by 1648 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields climbed, dragging on demand. “The market is looking at higher oil prices and the potential for inflation, while higher Treasury yields usually aren’t great for gold,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Spot gold traded 1.2% lower at $5,075.54. Platinum and palladium slipped as well, with traders eyeing Friday’s U.S. jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s March 18 rate call. 1
The decline is significant—this Iran war is upending the standard safe-haven moves, driving oil up near $85 a barrel and shaking bonds simultaneously. “The main barometers here are the crude oil price the spike in bond yields and the dollar,” said John Hardy, strategist at Saxo Bank, with U.S. 10-year yields notching roughly 4.14%. 2
The dollar’s surge is taking a toll. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback versus a group of major currencies, climbed 0.5% to 99.257. U.S. rate futures now reflect expectations for roughly 40 basis points—0.40 percentage point—of cuts this year. “Considering the sharp appreciation of the DXY index, dollar liquidity appears to be king,” Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen said, following weekly jobless claims that held steady at 213,000. 3
Silver clawed back 1.3% to $83.07 on Wednesday, snapping higher as the dollar’s rally stalled for now following Tuesday’s sharp drop. “The dollar has seen a pullback, which is providing some support,” noted Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Traders are now watching Friday’s payrolls report; Reuters’ economist survey points to 59,000 jobs added for February, down from January’s 130,000. 4
Markets staged a bounce after a rough Tuesday. Spot silver tumbled 8.48% to $81.85, the lowest since Feb. 20. Oil prices jumped, stocks lost ground, the dollar attracted haven demand. “How much this war is disproportionately hitting Europe and other oil-importing countries is really being highlighted right now in the markets,” said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research & strategy at Charles Schwab. 5
Silver sometimes behaves like a crisis hedge, but it wears an industrial badge too. Manufacturing demand — think electronics, solar panels — ties it to the global growth engine, so worries about the economy can weigh on prices.
Silver doesn’t offer interest the way cash or bonds do. Higher benchmark yields tend to sap demand for bullion, and a firmer dollar pushes up the cost per ounce for buyers paying in foreign currencies.
Oil’s potential to stoke inflation sits on one side; on the other, conflict drags on risk appetite. Silver? It’s been tossed around by those crosscurrents, barely reacting to headlines about physical supply.
Yet U.S. data and news from the Middle East could deliver the next shock. If jobs numbers overshoot forecasts, yields may keep pushing higher, putting more pressure on silver. On the flip side, a sharp fall in oil might ease inflation concerns and flip the rates story once more.
Silver isn’t behaving like its usual sleepy self—it’s moving with the big-picture trades. Right now, bond yields and the dollar are calling the shots.
