New York, February 19, 2026, 12:35 EST — Regular session.
- Spot silver is trading higher by roughly 1%, hovering close to $78 an ounce during U.S. hours.
- Friday’s PCE inflation numbers loom, and traders are already positioning for whatever shakeup the data brings to the rate outlook.
- Geopolitics pull one way, while uncertainty over industrial demand tugs the other.
Silver edged up Thursday, trading close to the $78 mark as U.S. markets opened. XAG/USD gained 0.99% to $77.95 per ounce by 12:20 p.m. EST, according to Investing.com, following a previous finish at $77.18.
This small uptick carries weight, largely because the market’s focus has zeroed in on just one thing right now: U.S. inflation data. All eyes are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, set for release Feb. 20 as part of the monthly personal income and outlays report.
The dollar has kept its edge. Fresh numbers from the Labor Department show initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. The dollar index edged up 0.2% to 97.90. Rate futures, according to Reuters, still show less than a 50% probability of a Fed cut before June. “It doesn’t look like an economy suffering from higher rates,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York. Reuters
Risk headlines didn’t scare off buyers. U.S. national security advisers gathered at the White House on Wednesday to talk Iran, with word that forces should be positioned in the region by mid-March. “We’re being whipsawed and moving sideways with volatility,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The Fed’s late-January minutes revealed a split—some policymakers see inflation possibly needing another hike, others see a path to cuts. Spot gold added 0.6%, landing at $5,007.46. Reuters
Silver’s swings have been hard to ignore lately, even for this volatile market. Prices surged 5.2% Wednesday to $77.24, erasing the previous session’s more than 4% slide. Marex’s Edward Meir flagged “some nervousness” tied to geopolitical jitters, while independent trader Tai Wong summed up February’s action as “a very tight trading range.” Reuters
Industrial demand has been coming under renewed scrutiny. According to industry experts, solar panel makers—who use around 196 million troy ounces of silver annually, about 17% of all demand—have ramped up their push to swap out silver for copper after last year’s price gains started to squeeze margins. “Silver is the greatest contributor to the increased cost of manufacturing solar panels,” said Derek Schnee, a senior commercial solar consultant at JK Renewables. Heraeus analysts put the cost of silver paste, the conductive material in solar cells, at roughly 30% of the overall cost to make a cell. Reuters
The dollar may get a boost from solid U.S. data, but that same data can work against silver in a hurry. If the PCE figure comes in hot, traders might start bracing for higher rates—sending the greenback higher and knocking precious metals lower, silver included.
Traders’ focus shifts to Friday’s PCE report, while Fed officials could weigh in further after minutes showed division over what comes next. Iran headlines are still unpredictable, and risk pricing reflects uncertainty tied to the mid-March U.S. forces deadline in the region.
