New York, Feb 11, 2026, 14:39 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Smurfit WestRock jumped roughly 11% in afternoon trading following an update on its 2026 earnings and long-term goals.
- The packaging company projected adjusted EBITDA between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion for 2026, while setting a 2030 goal near $7 billion.
- Earlier this week, it revealed plans to shut down a paper machine in Quebec amid a wider portfolio overhaul.
Shares of Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) jumped roughly 10.9% to $50.73 in Wednesday afternoon trading. The paper-based packaging firm raised its 2026 earnings forecast and rolled out new targets extending through 2030. Its packaging rivals showed mixed results: International Paper climbed about 1%, Packaging Corp of America also rose roughly 1%, but Graphic Packaging dropped around 6%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF edged up about 0.2%. 1
This update is crucial as packaging stocks react to minor fluctuations in volumes, prices, and mill downtime. Smurfit WestRock is still working through the merger numbers—cutting costs, boosting cash, and keeping the balance sheet stable.
Smurfit WestRock came into existence after Smurfit Kappa acquired WestRock in July 2024, making 2025 its first full year operating as a merged company. At a recent investor event in New York, CEO Tony Smurfit described the economic climate as “as difficult as I have seen,” noting a “sharp fall” in North America volumes. CFO Ken Bowles called their strategy “an acceleration.” 2
The company reported fourth-quarter net sales of $7.58 billion and net income of $98 million. Adjusted EBITDA — which excludes certain items before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — came in at $1.172 billion. Adjusted free cash flow reached $679 million. Looking ahead, it projects first-quarter adjusted EBITDA between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion, with full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecasted at $5.0 billion to $5.3 billion. The quarterly dividend was raised 5% to $0.4523 per share. 3
Smurfit WestRock’s medium-term plan aims for around $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, alongside roughly $14 billion in cumulative discretionary free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. The company highlighted plans for about $5 billion in dividends during that span and anticipates starting share buybacks in 2027. It also targets a long-term net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 2 times. Smurfit described its approach as “straightforward, disciplined and proven.” 4
On Monday, the company announced it will permanently close a paper machine at its La Tuque, Quebec mill, which has an annual capacity of 127,000 tons of solid bleached sulfate (SBS). It’s also shutting down an extrusion facility in Pointe-aux-Trembles, cutting about 30 and 60 jobs respectively. North America chief Laurent Sellier described the move as a “difficult but necessary decision.” 5
There are clear risks here. If consumer spending or industrial output slows, packaging demand could drop quickly. Even if volumes stay steady, pricing might still turn against producers. The longer-term goals depend a lot on how things play out in North America, where the company is still in downtime and reworking its asset portfolio.
Investors now turn to more straightforward metrics: will early 2026 volumes and pricing hold within the company’s Q1 guidance? And will cost-cutting measures reflect in cash flow? The next key date is Feb. 17, the record date for the quarterly dividend, which the company confirmed will be paid on March 18. 6
