New York, Feb 10, 2026, 16:39 EST — After-hours update
- SPGI dropped steeply after its profit forecast for 2026 missed estimates.
- Investors also considered the speed at which AI might transform paid market data and analytics.
- Next up: monthly billed-issuance and derivatives metrics, expected by mid-month.
S&P Global Inc shares fell 9.7% to $401.08 in after-hours trading Tuesday, having dropped as low as $360 earlier in the day. The decline came after the company released its initial outlook for profit and growth in 2026.
The miss matters because S&P Global is deeply embedded in market infrastructure—credit ratings, benchmarks, and data feeds that both investors and issuers rely on daily. When its outlook grows cautious, traders immediately wonder whether the slowdown is unique to the company or signals a broader drop in issuance, trading, and subscriptions.
S&P Global projected 2026 adjusted earnings between $19.40 and $19.65 per share, falling short of the $19.94 analysts were expecting. The stock fell to its lowest point in over two years. ClearStreet analysts noted that “AI anxiety will likely linger,” while RBC Capital Markets highlighted weaker transaction growth in ratings and a softer outlook in Market Intelligence. Separately, J.P. Morgan described current market pricing as “expressing the most bearish possible outcome,” calling it an overreaction as investors debate whether AI tools will undermine the value of proprietary data and analytics. (Reuters)
The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $3.916 billion, marking a 9% increase, with adjusted earnings hitting $4.30 per share. Revenue for 2025 climbed 8% to $15.336 billion, and adjusted earnings jumped 14% to $17.83 per share. It also returned $6.2 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. CEO Martina Cheung commented, “We delivered a strong quarter driven by performance in all divisions.”
Market Intelligence revenue ticked up 7%, while Ratings revenue saw a sharper rise of 12%, fueled by a 28% surge in billed issuance—a key metric linked to debt deals that drive ratings fees. Indices revenue jumped 14%, boosted by increased assets under management (AUM) and inflows. Energy revenue climbed 6%, and Mobility revenue grew 8%.
For 2026, S&P Global forecasted organic constant-currency revenue growth between 6% and 8%, with operating margins set to expand by 10 to 35 basis points. It postponed full GAAP guidance until after completing a Mobility spin expected mid-2026. The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.97, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend hikes. Additionally, the company will start releasing monthly billed-issuance and exchange-traded derivatives data on the 15th of each month, with a one-month delay.
“Adjusted” figures exclude things like deal-related amortization and other non-core costs, which companies with lots of acquisitions often do. Still, the market tends to focus on the official guidance, not the cleaned-up numbers—especially when investors are already on edge.
The wider market didn’t offer much lift. December’s U.S. retail sales came in flat, and investors were on edge ahead of Wednesday’s delayed nonfarm payrolls report—a key number that can shift rate expectations and impact valuations, especially for financial and data stocks. Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, described the retail figures as “bad news is good news,” but noted traders remained cautious until the jobs data drops. (Reuters)
S&P Global faces a real risk if its cautious outlook slides into an actual slowdown: fewer debt deals could cut into ratings transaction fees, softer markets might drag down index-linked revenue tied to assets, and AI-driven price pressure could hit subscription renewals first. On top of that, the Mobility spin-off brings extra uncertainty around timing and costs—something the company has already flagged as tough to estimate.
Investors are now zeroing in on whether management can pitch AI as a tool to boost margins instead of a risk to pricing. They’re also watching closely to see how fast issuance activity steadies following the recent volatility.
Coming up soon is S&P Global’s first mid-month release of billed issuance and exchange-traded derivatives data for January, scheduled for the 15th (or the following business day). Traders rely on this snapshot to assess the flow of ratings and index-linked transactions.
