London, March 5, 2026, 08:35 GMT
Standard Chartered PLC bumped up its Brent crude outlook for 2026, flagging upside risk if Middle East tensions take a bigger toll on supply or shipping lines. The bank now expects Brent to hit $74 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026, up from $62. For the second quarter, the projection moves to $67 from $63. The 2026 average climbs to $70 a barrel from the earlier $63.50 call. According to Standard Chartered, the forward curve—futures prices across the strip—has strengthened as markets take another look at tight spare capacity and possible bottlenecks, including the Strait of Hormuz.
The move hits as volatility continues. Brent climbed $2.44, or 3%, to $83.84 a barrel by 0722 GMT on Thursday, chalking up a fifth consecutive gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $77.10. Flows through Hormuz are still paused, and Iraq has pulled almost 1.5 million barrels a day from the market, officials told Reuters.
Banks have been busy revising their targets. Goldman Sachs now sees Brent at $76 a barrel for Q2 2026. UBS has pushed its own 2026 average up to $72. J.P. Morgan, meanwhile, flagged the risk that a lengthy outage could see Iraq and Kuwait slashing exports in just days. The risk premium is getting rebuilt fast.
The squeeze isn’t just financial — it’s rippling through shipping lanes and insurance markets. Commercial war-risk insurance has soared, climbing at least five times higher in the last few days. “Rates have increased from levels that owners and charterers will be used to,” said Angus Blayney, a broker at Gallagher. Over at the shipping association BIMCO, Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer, stressed it’s not realistic to protect every tanker passing through threatened zones; the naval resources just aren’t there. Reuters
UBS lifted its Brent forecast to an average of $71 per barrel for the first quarter, which suggests prices could reach $80 in March. For 2026, the bank now sees $72 per barrel—raising its target by $10. Risks remain: UBS pointed to possible upside if strikes disrupt key facilities like Qatar LNG, and warned oil could surge past $100 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for an extended stretch.
Goldman Sachs kept its forecasts tilted upward, pointing to potential export delays at Hormuz and the threat of hits to production sites as key risks. The bank wrote, “If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100.” Reuters
J.P. Morgan analysts warn that if the strait remains shut, oil flows from Iraq and Kuwait could grind to a halt in just a few days—a hit that would take 3.3 million barrels per day off the market by the eighth day of fighting. According to the bank, Iraq has about three days’ buffer before exports stop, while Kuwait could last up to fourteen, both relying on that same route.
Standard Chartered, in a daily client note dated March 4, pointed to safe-haven flows supporting the U.S. dollar. President Donald Trump’s announcement of insurance guarantees and naval escorts steadied WTI near $75 a barrel, following a spike earlier in the session. The bank added that, with the Iran conflict intensifying, money markets had shifted their bets for the next U.S. rate cut out to September, instead of July.
The risk isn’t off the table: if trade routes reopen or Gulf tankers resume activity, some of the premium currently priced in could disappear fast. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said crude supply is “very well supplied,” citing “hundreds of millions of barrels on the water away from the Gulf.” He also noted the U.S. Navy stands ready to escort tankers if the situation calls for it. Reuters
Standard Chartered stands among the banks whose commodities forecasts steer hedging moves by airlines, refiners, and industrial buyers. Right now, the takeaway isn’t so much about supply numbers as it is about snarled logistics — and those, the bank says, are anything but straightforward.
