New York, March 2, 2026, 07:16 (EST) — Premarket
- Sunrun ended Friday at $13.25, dropping 35.11% as trading volume surged.
- Sunrun’s 2026 cash forecast set off the selloff, with a flurry of cautious analyst notes adding to the pressure.
- Traders are shifting focus to macro numbers and rate cues—key factors that could jolt solar financing costs.
Sunrun Inc (RUN.O) limps into Monday’s U.S. session after Friday’s plunge, shedding 35.11% to close at $13.25. Trading volume topped 56 million shares. 1
Moves like that rarely stick to just one ticker. Sunrun, a heavyweight in residential solar, saw Friday’s drop put traders on alert for either continued fallout—or a quick rebound—in a sector known to get rough fast when financing shifts.
Sunrun puts up the cash for rooftop systems right away, then takes in revenue slowly, tied to lengthy contracts. The company feels the impact if investors want more for their capital, regardless of how solid its operating figures appear.
Sunrun on Feb. 26 projected $250 million to $450 million in 2026 “cash generation,” a non-GAAP metric not defined by standard accounting rules. For 2025, the company sees $377 million. Fourth-quarter revenue landed at $1.16 billion, a 124% jump, driven in part by selling newly originated customer agreements to a third party. Diluted earnings were $0.38 per share. Subscriber additions slipped 17%, but 71% of new customers opted for a battery, according to the company. “We’re delivering innovative, storage-first energy offerings” to address “rising utility costs,” Chief Executive Mary Powell said. 2
Jefferies on Friday downgraded Sunrun to Hold from Buy, sticking with its $22 price target. Analysts flagged the company’s “more defensive stance” as a sign of headwinds for growth and cash generation into 2026. They also noted the absence of plans for dividends or buybacks and highlighted concerns over tightening “tax equity”—the clean-energy tax credit funding that dictates how fast solar installers can scale. 3
GLJ Research’s Gordon L. Johnson II cut his rating on Sunrun to Sell, saying “the securitization machine is stalling”—his take on the slowdown in turning customer cash flows into bonds for investors. 4
It wasn’t only Sunrun feeling the squeeze. SolarEdge Technologies tumbled 12.38% on Friday, while First Solar shed 1.45% as the solar sector faltered, directionless. 5
Macro takes center stage this week. The spotlight is on February’s U.S. jobs report — investors watching closely as economists in a Reuters poll look for a payroll gain of around 60,000. If the number comes in hot or cold, rate expectations could shift fast. 6
The downside? Straightforward enough. Should funding costs remain elevated or capital-markets interest fail to pick up, installers could be forced to cut volumes or take a hit on margins just to keep teams working. Missing Sunrun’s projected cash-generation range would only stoke more debate.
Monday brings a test: Will buyers step in after the weekend? Traders are eyeing whether analysts pile on with more downgrades and target cuts now that guidance has dropped.
March 17-18 marks the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, a date solar stocks sensitive to rates will be watching closely. 7
The U.S. Labor Department drops its February jobs numbers March 6, with the release set for 8:30 a.m. ET. 8
