Telstra Group Limited’s $1.25 Billion Buyback Is Nearly Spent. Here’s What Investors Are Watching

Telstra Group Limited’s $1.25 Billion Buyback Is Nearly Spent. Here’s What Investors Are Watching

May 10, 2026

MELBOURNE, May 11, 2026, 03:03 AEST

Telstra Group Limited’s latest update to the ASX shows its expanded on-market share buyback is nearing completion. On May 8, the telecoms company reported it bought back another A$12.2 million worth of stock. Total outlay so far: about A$1.08 billion. With approval for up to A$1.25 billion, that leaves around A$168 million before the ceiling is hit.

The timing is key here: investors won’t have a full window to react until Monday, with Telstra shares last seen at A$5.31, down 0.38% at 16:40 on May 8. The buyback arrives just as Telstra rolls out fresh mobile price hikes—a real test for customer loyalty at Australia’s largest telecom, as bills climb.

With an on-market buyback, the company purchases its own stock right on the exchange. If the buybacks are sizable, they reduce total shares outstanding, which gives earnings per share a boost. Still, this move alone won’t address sluggish revenue or falling customer numbers.

Telstra ramped up its buyback to as much as A$1.25 billion in February, following a stronger showing in the first half. Profit attributable jumped 9.4% to A$1.12 billion, and the board bumped the interim dividend to 10.5 Australian cents per share. The company also tightened its FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDAaL, now pegged between A$8.2 billion and A$8.4 billion. EBITDAaL refers to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation after lease costs.

Back when the buyback was announced, Chief Executive Vicki Brady told investors it should “support earnings and dividend per share growth.” Over at eToro, market analyst Zavier Wong described Telstra as “one of the most defensive names on the ASX,” citing both its dividend and the buyback. Telstra.com

Pricing is the other big swing factor. Back in March, Telstra Consumer’s Brad Whitcomb pointed out that “customers are doing more on our network than ever before” as he flagged price hikes set for May 5. Most postpaid plans go up by A$4 a month, prepaid by around A$5. Telstra said the move is aimed at shoring up network reliability, security, and performance. Telstra.com

The race remains tight. According to ACCC figures, Telstra’s 2025 snapshot counted 11,767 mobile sites—ahead of Optus with 9,391 and TPG’s 5,207. On top of that, a regulator-approved network-sharing deal between TPG and Optus aims to push TPG’s coverage further. All of this leaves Telstra needing to show its network advantage keeps customers on board as prices tick up.

There’s a hitch: capital returns could end up derailed by customer churn, with users ditching Telstra for cheaper competitors, or by a broader downturn that saps appetite for more buybacks. Telstra has flagged that both the size and timing of its buyback are tied to market conditions, and says the buyback will run through normal trading during FY26.

Telstra’s annual results land August 13, with final dividend dates later in the month and a September 24 payout, per its investor calendar. For now, daily buyback disclosures, shifts in mobile customer numbers, and any competitive pressure from Optus or TPG will draw heightened scrutiny.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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