NEW YORK, March 5, 2026, 13:30 EST
- Weekly jobless claims came in steady at 213,000, while continuing claims ticked up to 1.868 million.
- Productivity growth in the fourth quarter came in at a 2.8% annual rate, with unit labor costs also up 2.8%.
- January import prices ticked up 0.2%. Treasury auctions and remarks from the Fed are still ahead.
Thursday brought updates on the U.S. economy: jobless claims didn’t budge, while import price numbers showed inflation ticking higher—once you strip out energy.
Focus returns to the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and Friday’s jobs data, following a series of releases that left the rate trajectory unresolved.
This comes down to the Fed juggling a labor market that remains solid while inflation refuses to settle at the target. Oil prices have surged lately, and that’s a quick hit for drivers—plus, it threatens to seep into other prices, muddying the outlook.
Jobless claims held steady at 213,000 for the week ended Feb. 28, while continuing claims climbed by 46,000 to hit 1.868 million, according to the Labor Department. That week sits outside the reference window for Friday’s payrolls numbers. Worker productivity picked up at a 2.8% annualized pace last quarter, matching a 2.8% gain in unit labor costs. “Nothing in the latest claims data” shifts her rate outlook, Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten said. On the other hand, JPMorgan’s Michael Hanson pointed to “upward pressure on imported fuel prices,” and Capital Economics’ Stephen Brown argued that “further disinflation ahead for services” is still likely—unless energy prices take off. 1
U.S. import prices edged up 0.2% in January, matching December’s pace, according to the Labor Department. Nonfuel imports did a bit better, ticking up 0.5%. On the export side, prices jumped 0.6% for the month, with nonagricultural exports up 0.7%. The import and export price indexes measure what goods cost crossing the border; “core” import prices leave out fuel and food, which tend to be volatile. 2
Another labor update landed early: U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts for February, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That’s a sharp drop—55% lower than in January, and 72% below last year’s tally. “February’s dip is a nice reprieve,” said workplace expert Andy Challenger, but he warned, “AI is the big story” behind tech layoffs as companies confront rising costs and an uncertain outlook. 3
Thursday’s lineup isn’t done yet. Traders are still looking out for Treasury buyback details and the Fed’s weekly balance sheet, both expected later. Fed speakers and Treasury activity have kept the focus shifting. 4
Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, had a spot on the agenda for a virtual New York Bankers Association event centered on the economy and innovation, per CME Group’s event listing. 5
The Treasury has its next batch of supply lined up for Thursday: a fresh 3-year note plus reopenings for both the 10-year and the 30-year, with short-bill sales also on deck. These auctions could add a little extra movement to yields, especially given how jumpy markets are around inflation news this day. 6
The January U.S. international trade report, first set for March 5, got bumped to March 12, according to the Census Bureau’s foreign trade calendar. Trade balance figures, which can swing the dollar and feed straight into GDP tracking, are now on a week’s delay. 7
Fed officials are sticking with their emphasis on fresh inflation readings, despite recent volatility in energy markets. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that “a couple months of relatively high inflation” is enough to “put pause to any conclusion” that the Fed has tamed inflation risks. He also pointed out the Iran conflict’s role in driving up crude, with Brent crude rallying roughly 15% since late February to more than $83 a barrel, according to Reuters. 8
The next day or so could flip the narrative. Payrolls might throw a curveball, up or down, and a sharp move in oil has the potential to snuff out the inflation worry almost as fast as it started. With delayed data releases, tracking monthly inflation is trickier than usual—no smooth sequence to line things up.
The focus now shifts to Friday’s jobs report, but traders are already eyeing the Fed’s go-to inflation metric—the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—set for release on March 13. 9
