NEW YORK, April 6, 2026, 14:48 EDT
U.S. natural gas futures ticked up on Monday, breaking a four-day losing streak as colder air pushed across the Ohio Valley and into the East—boosting demand for heating and electricity. May contracts climbed to roughly $2.84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the market benchmark. “A near-term cold wave is hitting the Ohio valley and moving eastward,” said Dennis Kissler at BOK Financial Securities. Bloomberg
The rebound hasn’t shifted the broader trend. Front-month contracts remain stuck near lows not seen since August 2025, squeezed by mild spring temperatures that continue to suppress demand and allow storage levels to climb. U.S. export facilities are already operating near capacity.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 36 billion cubic foot build in working gas storage for the week ending March 27. Inventories reached 1,865 bcf—putting stocks 96 bcf over last year and 54 bcf higher than the five-year average. That’s a clear sign the domestic market isn’t looking tight as spring approaches.
That’s part of the reason the Middle East conflict has pressured U.S. gas markets differently than oil or international gas. The EIA’s latest short-term outlook noted LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed, boosting prices in Europe and Asia. But U.S. gas? The agency said storage levels got a bump from February’s mild temperatures, so prices here should stay “relatively unaffected.” For 2026, the EIA stuck with a Henry Hub forecast around $3.80 per mmBtu. U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. LNG exporters haven’t slowed down. March saw a new record, with 11.7 million metric tons shipped out, according to Reuters. Europe remained at the front of the line, but volumes headed for Asia jumped—more than twice February’s total—thanks in part to fresh supply from Cheniere and the Golden Pass project, a link-up between QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil.
Oil’s influence is filtering through—though the read isn’t exactly clean. Reuters reported WTI crude hanging above $111 a barrel and Brent trading close to $109 on Monday, following last week’s big jump. Gas traders are caught weighing if heightened energy pressures will be enough to balance out lagging U.S. seasonal demand.
FXEmpire analyst Christopher Lewis flagged $2.75 as the “short-term floor” for now, with $3 marking the key resistance if prices bounce. The action’s still largely tethered to weather swings and short-term trades, not a structural supply crunch. FXEmpire
The lift from the weather may not last long. Gas rigs edged up by three to 130 last week, according to Reuters, while the EIA continues to project U.S. gas production reaching 109.5 billion cubic feet per day this year. That points to supply growth persisting, even as prices remain soft.
James Hyerczyk at FXEmpire flagged solid production numbers, bigger storage, and tepid seasonal demand as the main drivers, saying any rally hinges on a bigger boost in LNG exports or a more intense, longer cold snap. Monday’s uptick? He sees it as more of a breather than a real reversal.
