New York, Feb 21, 2026, 14:49 EST — Market closed.
- UnitedHealth shares ended Friday up about 0.02% at $290 after a wide intraday swing.
- New federal data show Medicare Advantage enrollment growth slowed into 2026, a key profit driver for big insurers.
- Next week’s focus includes a Feb. 25 CMS comment deadline on proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage payment changes.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shares closed Friday at $290.00, up 0.07 from Thursday, after trading as low as $285.55. Volume was about 7.0 million shares. (Yahoo Finance)
With U.S. markets shut for the weekend, traders are turning to what can move the stock before the New York Stock Exchange reopens on Monday: Medicare Advantage policy and early signals on how the big insurers are holding enrollment after plan exits and benefit trims.
That matters for UnitedHealth because its UnitedHealthcare unit is one of the largest Medicare Advantage players. Medicare Advantage is the privately run alternative to traditional Medicare, and it has been where the sector has leaned on growth and margins when commercial insurance gets choppy.
New federal data showed Medicare Advantage enrollment was just under 35.5 million as of early February, up from about 34.4 million a year earlier, according to a report citing CMS figures. Fierce Healthcare said some large insurers, including UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health’s Aetna, pulled back in certain markets and tightened benefits as medical costs and use rose, while Humana saw stronger-than-expected sign-ups during the annual window. (Fierce Healthcare)
“The most dire predictions didn’t come to pass. The market remains fairly robust,” Meredith Freed, a senior policy manager at KFF’s program on Medicare policy, was quoted as saying, adding that the pace of growth has slowed. (MarketWatch)
The bigger overhang is still 2027. CMS said its proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage policies would result in a net average year-over-year payment increase of 0.09%, and it set a Feb. 25 deadline for comments, with a final rate announcement due no later than April 6. CMS also laid out proposed risk-adjustment changes, including excluding some diagnoses used to calculate plan payments. (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
Health insurers finished Friday mostly lower even as the broader market rose, leaving UnitedHealth as a relative holdout. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% and the Dow rose 0.47%, while UnitedHealth edged up 0.02%; CVS fell 0.81% and Elevance Health dropped 1.51%, MarketWatch data showed. (MarketWatch)
UnitedHealth has been trading in the shadow of its late-January reset, when it warned revenue would fall in 2026 and the sector took a hit from the government’s near-flat 2027 Medicare Advantage payment proposal. “Investors hoping for a quick turnaround may have to wait longer than hoped,” Morningstar analyst Julie Utterback said at the time. (Reuters)
A lot of the argument now sits inside “risk adjustment,” the government formula that raises or lowers insurer payments based on how sick members are, using diagnosis codes. Small shifts in what codes count can change payments across millions of members.
But there is a catch. If CMS sticks close to the proposed 2027 framework — flat headline rates and tighter rules around diagnoses — insurers may have less room to fund extra benefits or absorb higher medical use without pushing premiums and co-pays higher. Any renewed spike in utilization would add pressure, especially if companies decide to walk away from more counties.
For UnitedHealth, the week ahead looks less about new company headlines and more about the paper trail: comment letters, Washington noise around Medicare Advantage, and any hints that CMS will soften (or harden) the risk-model changes.
The next hard dates are Feb. 25 for comments on the 2027 Medicare Advantage proposal and April 6 for the final CMS rate announcement, both potential catalysts for the whole managed-care group.
