New York, Feb 16, 2026, 16:59 (EST) — Market closed
UnitedHealth Group shares rose 3.1% to $293.19 in their last session on Friday, after hitting an intraday high of $294 and a low of $283.41 on volume of about 10.3 million shares. U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Presidents Day.
That leaves traders with a two-day gap to digest fresh signals before Wall Street reopens on Tuesday.
The focus is Medicare Advantage, the privately run version of Medicare funded by the government. For big insurers, small shifts in enrollment or payment rules can swing profit expectations fast.
New federal data show the program’s growth is slowing again. About 35.5 million people were enrolled in Medicare Advantage as of Feb. 1, up roughly 3% from 34.4 million a year earlier, according to STAT’s review of the figures. Growth during Medicare’s annual enrollment window from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7 was just 1%, it said. (STAT)
UnitedHealth sells Medicare Advantage plans through its UnitedHealthcare unit and has the Optum services arm alongside it, a mix investors often point to as a buffer when one line of business cools. The stock still tends to trade as a referendum on where managed-care margins go next.
Peers have already flagged pressure points. Humana this month forecast 2026 profit below estimates after its Medicare Advantage “star ratings” — government quality scores tied to bonus payments — dropped, Reuters reported. Morningstar analyst Julie Utterback said Humana’s expansion “could further strain margins,” a warning investors have applied across the sector. (Reuters)
For UnitedHealth, slower growth does not automatically mean lower earnings, but it can change the playbook. Insurers have leaned on tighter benefits, narrower networks and pricing discipline to protect margins as medical costs rise.
But the rebound in UNH could fade quickly if care costs come in hotter than plans priced for, forcing higher medical payouts. That risk tends to show up in guidance before it shows up in reported results.
Investors get the next hard dates from Washington: comments on CMS’ 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D advance notice are due Feb. 25, and the agency said it will publish the 2027 rate announcement no later than April 6. Trading in U.S. equities resumes Tuesday after the holiday. (Cms)
