New York, March 4, 2026, 13:41 ET — Regular session
- Megacap tech lifted Wall Street in the afternoon, pushing the market into positive territory.
- ADP hiring and ISM services both post solid numbers; EIA logs a fresh rise in crude inventories.
- The Fed’s Beige Book drops at 2 p.m. ET. February’s jobs numbers arrive Friday.
Stocks gained ground Wednesday afternoon, with the Dow rising 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq posting a 1.5% jump as of 1:41 p.m. ET. Fresh economic data and shifting headlines out of the Middle East kept traders alert. U.S. crude oil inventories climbed by 3.475 million barrels in the latest weekly reading, according to the data. 1
Stocks sank Tuesday — S&P 500 dropped 0.9% to 6,816.63, Dow off 0.8% at 48,501.27. Traders seem jumpy about inflation tied to oil, with little appetite for negative news. 2
Stocks got a lift after The New York Times reported that Iranian intelligence operatives had made indirect contact with the CIA, signaling a possible willingness to talk about ending the conflict. U.S. officials, however, weren’t convinced. “Until people think what’s happening in the Middle East will cause a recession, they’re giving stocks the benefit of the doubt,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. Nvidia climbed 1.6%, Amazon advanced 3.4%. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility barometer, slipped to 20.7. Traders now see the Fed’s next quarter-point rate cut pushed out to September. 3
Oil slipped from its earlier peak while crypto surged, a mix that lured risk-seeking buyers back in. “You combine all of those and it equates to a market that’s feeling further emboldened,” said Michael James, equity sales trader at Rosenblatt Securities. 4
ADP’s latest read on private payrolls landed at 63,000 jobs added in February, a pop from January’s figure—which itself got knocked down to just 11,000 after revisions. Looking ahead, economists are penciling in a 59,000 rise for nonfarm payrolls in Friday’s official jobs data, with unemployment expected to stick at 4.3%. “There is no justification for a rate cut here,” said John Ryding, chief economic adviser at Brean Capital. 5
The Institute for Supply Management reported its services PMI at 56.1 in February, with new orders coming in at 58.6 and employment at 51.8. “The highest since July 2022,” said Steve Miller, who chairs ISM’s services survey committee. 6
The ISM survey wrapped up before the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, leaving economists to caution that pricier energy might still slow growth and drive inflation higher. Goldman Sachs figures a $10 bump in oil prices would trim 0.1 percentage point from 2026 GDP if energy costs remain up. Over at Wells Fargo, analysts said if oil holds 10% above current levels, headline consumer inflation could climb another 0.3 percentage point later this year. 7
Officials at the Fed are beginning to assess the consequences, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack telling the New York Times it’s premature to call the war’s effect on the economy. Hammack favors keeping rates unchanged “for quite some time,” emphasizing the need for policy to “drive inflation back down to target,” all while monitoring for signs of a weakening labor market. 8
Shares of Moderna surged after the company struck a deal to pay Genevant Sciences and Arbutus Biopharma as much as $2.25 billion, ending a high-stakes patent battle over the lipid nanoparticle tech inside its COVID-19 shot. The dispute is one strand in the tangled web of vaccine patent lawsuits—Pfizer and BioNTech have faced their own. Jefferies’ Andrew Tsai called the agreement a clear positive, saying it “removes the worst-case scenario” of major royalty payments. 9
Broadcom will take the spotlight after the bell, as options pricing signals traders bracing for an 8% swing post-earnings. The stock has shed almost 25% since December, setting the scene for a tougher hurdle on guidance. 10
The Fed’s Beige Book, a collection of economic snapshots from its 12 districts, is set for release at 2 p.m. ET. Looking ahead, the government posts its February jobs data Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. 11
Right now, markets are stuck in a tight spot. Strong data supports hopes for a “soft landing,” yet a fresh surge in crude prices could quickly change the mood. Everything hinges on Friday’s payroll numbers—and whatever oil manages between now and then will determine whether today’s rebound holds up.
