NEW YORK, March 30, 2026, 15:07 EDT
Wall Street clawed back some ground on Monday, but the Dow and Nasdaq stayed in correction, a market term for a fall of 10% from a recent peak, as oil held above $100 and investors weighed a widening Middle East war centered on Iran. By 11:31 a.m. ET, the Dow was up 324 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.31% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.05%, while Brent crude traded near $112.94 a barrel. 1
The lift did not change the core problem. Brent is up about 60% in March, the steepest monthly jump on record, while global government bond prices are headed for their biggest monthly fall in years and markets have scrapped earlier bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. 2
Pressure is showing beyond stocks. Reuters reported that bid-ask spreads, the gap between buying and selling prices, on newly issued two-year Treasuries widened roughly 27% in March, and some European rate-futures liquidity fell to 10% of normal. “When we try to trade, it takes longer to trade,” Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management, said. 3
Weekend headlines kept traders off balance. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was in talks with a “more reasonable regime” in Iran, even as he again warned Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, or face fresh attacks on energy infrastructure; Yemen’s Houthi militia also entered the war. Investors have grown more skeptical of such swings between optimism and threats. 4
The damage was already done. The Dow confirmed a correction on Friday after falling 1.7% and sits 10% below its Feb. 10 record close; the Nasdaq slipped into correction a day earlier, and the S&P 500 ended last week 8.7% below its January high. 5
Inside the market, investors still paid for oil and sold growth. Exxon Mobil rose 2.1% and Chevron 1.3%, while Apple and Broadcom weighed on tech and the semiconductor index slid to a three-month low. “It’s the sense that there’s negotiations going on and if that’s the case, there may be some resolution,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, said, describing the move as the kind of relief bid oversold markets seize on when a thin positive catalyst appears. 1
Morgan Stanley turned more cautious, cutting global equities to “equal weight,” effectively a neutral call, from “overweight” and raising cash and U.S. Treasuries. The bank said flows into U.S. stocks and bonds have overtaken the rest of the world since the conflict began, while strategists led by Michael Wilson said there was “growing evidence” the S&P 500 correction was getting closer to its ending stages, provided recession and Fed hikes are avoided. 6
But the bounce still looks fragile. JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman said another month of disruption in Hormuz would be consistent with oil near $150 a barrel, and Morgan Stanley warned $150-$180 oil could cut global equity valuations by almost 25%. With U.S. labor data due this week, Powell said longer-term inflation expectations still appeared anchored, but the Fed did not yet need to decide how to react to the energy shock. 2
