Walmart stock jumps on $30 billion buyback, but cautious outlook keeps traders on edge

Walmart stock jumps on $30 billion buyback, but cautious outlook keeps traders on edge

February 19, 2026

New York, Feb 19, 2026, 10:28 (EST) — Regular session underway.

  • Stock climbed roughly 2% early after Walmart announced a fresh $30 billion buyback plan
  • Revenue for the holiday quarter climbed 5.6%, with adjusted EPS landing at $0.74.
  • Walmart is projecting net sales to rise between 3.5% and 4.5% in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS seen landing somewhere in the $2.75 to $2.85 range.

Walmart shares climbed 2.1% to $129.24 as of 10:18 a.m. EST on Thursday, following news of a new $30 billion share buyback plan. The retailer posted holiday-quarter revenue at $190.7 billion, with adjusted earnings coming in at 74 cents per share. For fiscal 2027, Walmart is projecting adjusted EPS between $2.75 and $2.85, and it’s aiming for net sales growth in the 3.5% to 4.5% range.

Walmart stands out as a quick, reliable gauge of U.S. household spending, so these numbers carry weight. When a giant moving groceries and essentials signals caution, it can jolt expectations for the whole retail sector fast.

This marks the first major challenge for new CEO John Furner. Investors are tracking whether Walmart can continue attracting higher-income online shoppers, even as budget-conscious customers remain cautious. On the post-earnings call, Furner noted households earning under $50,000 are feeling the squeeze: “wallets are stretched,” he said. Fitch analyst David Silverman sees more room for Walmart to grow its e-commerce business. Reuters

Walmart keeps turning to faster delivery, store pickup, and its drive into high-margin areas like advertising and membership fees. This change in mix is picking up the slack where price increases once did the heavy lifting—helping explain why the stock doesn’t look like a classic slow-and-steady defensive bet anymore.

According to a filing, the company submitted its earnings release and presentation to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

The race isn’t slowing down. According to the Financial Times, Amazon has now surpassed Walmart in annual revenue, despite Walmart booking record sales for the year through January 2026.

But there’s a risk here: if Walmart’s guarded forecast ends up being too rosy on sales, or if customers cut back more sharply, the setup could unravel. Shares have already priced in plenty of positives. In retail, margins don’t have much protection—promotions, shipping expenses, or bumpy demand can erode them fast.

Investors are eyeing the pace of Walmart’s latest buyback program and looking for any signs that early-quarter results, particularly in online and general merchandise, are tracking with the company’s outlook.

Looking ahead, the next key date is the dividend: Walmart’s board signed off on a fiscal 2027 annual cash dividend of $0.99 per share, to be distributed over four quarters. The first record date lands March 20, 2026, with payment slated for April 6, 2026. CFO John David Rainey put it simply: “Dividends continue to be a part of our diversified capital returns approach.” Walmart Newsroom

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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