WARSAW, March 7, 2026, 09:24 CET
Poland’s WIG20 share index suffered its worst week of 2026, falling 5.17% over March 2-6 to 3,262.33 points. It followed nine 2026 weeks in which the benchmark had either risen or slipped less than 1%. 1
The move matters now because it wiped out the brief relief that followed this week’s Polish rate cut. The National Bank of Poland lowered its reference rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75%, and its new March projection put 2026 inflation at 2.4% and GDP growth at 2.9%; on the day of the decision, the WIG20 had jumped 2.48%. 2
That local support ran into a much larger selloff across Europe. The STOXX 600 dropped 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly fall in nearly a year, as the Middle East conflict drove oil higher and revived inflation worries; “Europe is a bit more exposed to higher oil prices,” Ciaran Callaghan, head of European equity research at Amundi, said, while Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas argued the shock had put the Fed “in a difficult position.” 3
The reversal was sharp because February had been unusually strong. The exchange said Main Market equity turnover rose 19.9% year on year to PLN 49.3 billion in February, while the broad WIG hit a record 127,740.99 points on Feb. 25 and the mid-cap mWIG40 set an all-time high on Feb. 3. 4
By Friday’s close, the damage was broad. The wider WIG dropped 1.83% to 120,677.13, mWIG40 fell 1.93% and sWIG80 lost 0.89%; among heavyweights, Allegro rose 5.87%, but PKO BP fell 4.62%, Pekao lost 3.91% and PGE sank 5.99%. 5
Energy stocks did not all move in one direction. Orlen slipped only 0.58% after Reuters reported it had received a force majeure notice — a contractual warning that extraordinary events can delay or cancel delivery — from QatarEnergy on two liquefied natural gas cargoes due in April and early May, but the company said the issue posed no threat to Poland’s gas supply security because alternative supply routes were available. 6
Even with shares under pressure, the exchange kept widening its offer. On Friday it added three exchange-traded funds and four U.S.-listed companies to GlobalConnect, the WSE market that lets local investors buy foreign shares and funds in zlotys, and board member Michał Kobza said the platform was meant to be “an attractive bridge connecting Polish investors with foreign markets.” 7
But the near-term risk is plain. Morgan Stanley said euro zone inflation was likely to stay above the European Central Bank’s target for the rest of 2026 if energy prices remain elevated, and Reuters reported that J.P. Morgan had already shifted the zloty to “underweight” — a smaller-than-benchmark position — as the oil shock spread across emerging markets. If oil cools, last week’s drop may read as a hard correction after February’s records; if it does not, Warsaw’s rate-cut story could stay in the background for longer. 8
