Sydney, March 20, 2026, 09:03 AEDT
- CBA finished Thursday at A$177.36—up 0.15%. The S&P/ASX 200 slid about 1.7% to a four-month low.
- Record half-year earnings and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 4.1% cash rate continue to buoy the stock.
- Valuation is still a concern—Reuters’ stock analysis shows CBA rated Underperform by 14 analysts.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia finished Thursday at A$177.36, up 0.15%. That’s a four-day winning streak for CBA, even as the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.7% to hit a four-month low. The stock now sits about 7% under its 52-week peak of A$191.40 from June 25, 2025.
It’s catching attention now: investors are still piling into the big banks, despite the wider market wobbling as oil prices jump and inflation jitters linger. On March 17, the Reserve Bank of Australia pushed its cash rate—the main policy rate—up to 4.1% by a narrow 5-4 vote, fueling expectations that higher borrowing costs aren’t going away anytime soon.
CBA’s earnings momentum is still intact. Back in February, the bank posted a record A$5.45 billion first-half cash net profit, bumped up the interim dividend to A$2.35 per share, and managed to outpace rivals on both home and business loan growth. “Household consumption has risen,” CEO Matt Comyn noted. Analyst Michael Haynes at Atlas Funds Management singled out “growth in the business bank” as the key driver, while CBA claimed it was grabbing business-banking share from NAB and ANZ. Reuters
This surge isn’t isolated to a single bank. NAB shares climbed to a new record after reporting first-quarter cash earnings in February. Westpac posted a record high, too, following its quarterly profit, while ANZ also broke through to a new peak on the back of a jump in cash profit. Investors have piled in hard to Australia’s Big Four lenders this earnings season.
CBA’s Belinda Allen flagged a tilt toward RBA hikes in March and May, saying “the balance of probabilities has shifted.” Thursday’s jobs numbers—48,900 new positions in February—didn’t settle things. Unemployment ticked up anyway, reaching 4.3%, so traders remain on edge for possible further tightening. Reuters
But it’s not all upside for CBA with higher rates. Net interest margin, the difference between what the bank makes from loans and what it pays out on deposits, dipped to 2.04% for the half year—a 4 basis point decline. As of March 5, 14 analysts tracked by Reuters assigned CBA an Underperform rating.
The broader picture isn’t looking any brighter. According to the IMF, if energy prices stay elevated for longer, inflation might accelerate and growth could take a hit. Goldman Sachs, for its part, flagged that extended trouble at the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering a supply shock with few historical parallels.
At this point, investors continue to shell out for CBA’s perceived safety, even as the broader market struggles. That play has held up this week. But with the valuation stretched, there’s not much margin for mistakes if either that premium cracks or households take a bigger hit from the oil spike.
