NEW YORK, March 9, 2026, 09:28 EDT
SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, fell about 1.3% before the opening bell on Monday, while DIA, which mirrors the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lost nearly 1%. QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 fund, was down about 1.5%, pointing to another weak start for Wall Street.
The slide matters because it is landing on a market that was already weakening. Oil briefly surged toward $120 a barrel as the Middle East conflict deepened, while Friday’s unexpected drop in U.S. payrolls revived fears of stagflation, a mix of slowing growth and stubborn inflation that gives the Federal Reserve little room to maneuver. 1
By early Monday, Dow futures were down 1.18%, S&P 500 futures were off 1.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.13%. The VIX volatility index, often called Wall Street’s fear gauge, stood at 32.14, its highest since April 2025. 1
Friday’s cash session had already left a mark. The S&P 500 fell 1.33% to 6,740.02, the Nasdaq dropped 1.59% and the Dow lost 0.95%, leaving the S&P down 2.02% for the week, its biggest weekly fall since mid-October. 2
The selling was not confined to SPY. IVV and VOO, the two other large funds that track the S&P 500, were both down about 1.3% before the bell, suggesting investors were cutting broad U.S. equity exposure rather than one product.
That fits the tone of market notes published over the past week. TipRanks tied SPY’s March 6 drop to weak payrolls and higher oil prices, while Stocktwits said DIA was nearing a break of its 100-day moving average, a medium-term trend line based on roughly five months of trading, for the first time since June 23, 2025. On Sunday, Andrew McElroy, chief analyst at Matrixtrade, wrote on Seeking Alpha that the S&P 500 was in a “slow grind lower rather than a collapse” and said a close below 6,764 could point to 6,500 in the weeks ahead. 3
Friday’s labor report gave sellers fresh reason to cut risk. U.S. employers cut 92,000 jobs in February, against expectations for a 59,000 gain, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. “You can’t sugarcoat this report,” Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said, warning that job losses combined with higher oil would sharpen stagflation fears. 4
There were few places to hide. Higher energy prices lifted Diamondback and APA by more than 2% in premarket trade, while airlines, cruise operators and big banks fell harder. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said the market was facing a much higher risk of U.S. and global recession as inflation surged, and Goldman Sachs said a one percentage point hit to growth could cut S&P 500 earnings by as much as 4%. 1
But the next leg is not settled. G7 finance ministers are due to discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves, and Saudi Arabia and other governments are weighing steps to raise supply. David Rees, head of global economics at Schroders, said part of the payroll miss reflected healthcare strikes that should reverse; if oil stays high and no relief comes, the hit to profits could deepen quickly. 5
Investors now turn to U.S. consumer price data due Wednesday and the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting for clues on whether policymakers will focus more on weakening jobs or on the new inflation shock from energy. For now, Monday’s drop keeps the warnings around SPY, DIA and the broader S&P 500 firmly in play. 6
