New York, Feb 11, 2026, 11:57 EST — Regular session
- Ford shares edged higher in late morning trade as investors weighed a rebound forecast for 2026
- The automaker flagged heavy tariff and supply-chain costs even as it targets higher profit and cash flow
- Next checkpoint: Ford’s first-quarter results due April 28
Ford Motor shares rose about 0.9% to $13.69 on Wednesday, a day after the automaker laid out a 2026 profit-and-cash outlook that kept the stock from breaking down after a headline-grabbing loss.
This matters now because Ford’s stock is tied to one question: can it keep the cash machine running in trucks and commercial vehicles while it absorbs the bill for tariffs, quality fixes and an electric-vehicle reset.
Wall Street has heard the turnaround story before. What it wants this time is cleaner execution — fewer surprises, fewer one-offs, and a steadier path for the EV unit that still bleeds money.
In an 8-K filing and quarterly release, Ford said fourth-quarter revenue was $45.9 billion and it posted a net loss of $11.1 billion, while adjusted EBIT — earnings before interest and taxes excluding special items — was $1.0 billion. It forecast 2026 adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, a cash measure after capital spending, and guided for capital spending of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. “We improved our core business and execution,” CEO Jim Farley said, while reiterating a target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. (SEC)
Ford also pointed to a hit from a fire at an aluminum supplier and a bigger-than-expected tariff bill after it received less relief on imported auto parts than it anticipated. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said a late change in the tariff program added about $900 million in costs, and Ford expects about $2 billion in tariff-related costs this year, much of it linked to aluminum used in the F-150. Farley also highlighted plans to roll out an electric pickup on a new $30,000 EV platform next year, as rivals in Detroit and abroad adjust EV plans and take their own charges. (Reuters)
Analysts were split on how much to credit the outlook versus the risks behind it. Morgan Stanley said the midpoint of Ford’s 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance was 5.4% below its estimate and 1.2% below consensus, adding: “Tariffs drove a modest miss in 4Q.” Barclays analyst Dan Levy said the 2026 outlook “largely cleared the bar” and called the initial assumptions reasonable. (Investing)
On the earnings call, House put a number on the aluminum workarounds. She said Ford expects $1.5 billion to $2 billion of temporary costs in 2026 to ensure supply continuity until the supplier’s hot mill is back up, “sometime between May and September,” and said expected year-over-year tariff savings would be offset by those temporary costs. (The Motley Fool)
Ford is also trying to show progress on quality, an issue that has weighed on warranty costs. Farley told employees on Wednesday that companywide bonuses for salaried staff would be set to 130%, people familiar with the matter said, after improvements in initial quality — repairs in the first 90 days of ownership — which he said was the best in a decade. (Reuters)
But the path is narrow. If tariff rules shift again, if the aluminum disruption drags, or if U.S. demand softens faster than Ford expects, the company’s cash cushion gets tested and the EV timetable can slip.
Investors will now watch for updates on tariff exposure, supply stability and whether cost cuts show up in quarterly margins rather than in promises. Ford’s next scheduled checkpoint is its first-quarter report after the close on April 28.
