New York, Feb 12, 2026, 05:55 (EST) — Premarket
Shares of International Business Machines Corp fell 6.5% on Wednesday, ending at $272.81.
The drop put IBM at the center of a session where software shares sank on renewed talk of AI-driven disruption, even as U.S. stocks finished near flat and traders pared back rate-cut bets after January jobs data. Investors’ next macro marker is the January Consumer Price Index report due on Friday, a test for the “higher-for-longer” argument that tends to hit tech valuations first. (Reuters)
Some of the pressure is coming from a more basic question: which companies get helped by generative AI, and which get undercut. “There’s a schizophrenic personality on AI right now,” Stephen Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners, told the Wall Street Journal, as software names including Salesforce and Intuit slid more than 4% in the same session. (The Wall Street Journal)
Technicians also flagged a break of a widely watched level. IBM closed below its 200-day moving average — a long-term trend gauge based on roughly 200 sessions of average closes — after falling through about $285.98, Nasdaq data showed. (Nasdaq)
IBM’s proposed $11 billion purchase of Confluent is back on the near-term calendar after the target posted results late Wednesday. In an SEC filing, Confluent reported fourth-quarter revenue of $314.8 million, up 21%, with subscription revenue of $301.6 million; it posted non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.12, a measure that strips out certain costs such as stock-based compensation. Chief executive Jay Kreps said Confluent ended the quarter with 23% growth in Confluent Cloud revenue, while CFO Rohan Sivaram pointed to “margin expansion at scale”; the company said it agreed to be acquired by IBM for $31 per share in cash and will not host an earnings call or provide guidance while the deal is pending. (SEC)
Confluent shareholders are scheduled to vote on the merger agreement later Thursday at a special meeting, according to the company’s proxy statement. The filing said Confluent’s board recommends approval; if adopted, each share would convert into the right to receive $31 in cash.
IBM, for its part, has been pushing an “agentic AI” message — systems designed to plan and take actions, not just answer prompts — into its infrastructure lineup. On Tuesday, the company unveiled a new FlashSystem storage portfolio “co-run by agentic AI,” and said the products can cut manual storage management effort “by up to 90%” in internal evaluations; the systems are slated to be generally available on March 6. (IBM Newsroom)
But the near-term tape is still being driven by two moving targets: the market’s reassessment of AI winners and losers, and the path of U.S. rates. A messy CPI print or a surprise outcome on the Confluent vote could keep IBM stock pinned in the spotlight into next week.
IBM sells software, consulting, infrastructure and financing services, with a business that leans heavily on hybrid cloud and enterprise IT spending. That mix can look defensive on quiet days, but it also makes the stock sensitive when investors start to question what AI means for legacy tech budgets. (Reuters)
Traders will watch the Confluent shareholder vote for any sign of delay or dissent, then Friday’s inflation data for the next swing in rate expectations. Beyond that, investors will look for evidence that IBM’s latest “agentic AI” product push translates into bookings as the new FlashSystem line approaches launch.
