Detroit, Feb 12, 2026, 14:11 EST
Ford projects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for 2026 between $8 billion and $10 billion, excluding one-off items. This follows a 2025 net loss weighed down by electric-vehicle charges and rising costs. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, after capital expenditures, and plans to invest $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion in capital projects this year. Ford’s shares climbed about 1% to $13.98 in afternoon trading. 1
Investors are closely tracking whether Detroit automakers can maintain healthy cash flow amid the growing costs and uncertainties of the EV shift. Ford’s 2026 lineup gave the market a boost despite a disappointing quarter, with traders zeroing in on the firm’s cash and margin goals rather than the headline loss. 2
Ford is pushing to accelerate development of more affordable models as competition heats up and policy shifts alter demand. CEO Jim Farley says the company is focusing on cheaper EVs, partnerships, and hybrids. Meanwhile, rivals General Motors and Stellantis have reported hefty charges linked to changes in their EV strategies. “I do believe this is the right allocation of capital,” Farley told analysts. 3
The fourth quarter revealed some pressure on Ford. Adjusted profit came in at 13 cents per share, falling short of analyst predictions, though revenue hit $45.9 billion, beating estimates. Despite this, the company recorded a net loss of $11.1 billion for the quarter and $8.2 billion for the full year. Morgan Stanley noted that Ford’s 2026 adjusted EBIT midpoint was below its forecast, while Barclays’ Dan Levy said the guidance “largely cleared the bar.” 4
One last-minute tweak deepened the miss. On Dec. 23, the Trump administration informed Ford that tariff relief for imported parts would only be retroactive to November, not May as initially expected. That slashed the anticipated credits and tacked on about $900 million in extra costs, CFO Sherry House said. 5
Supply issues are set to linger into 2026. On the earnings call, House revealed Ford anticipates $1.5 billion to $2 billion in temporary aluminum sourcing costs—covering tariffs and premium freight—until supplier Novelis can bring a vital hot mill back online “sometime between May and September.” Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra echoed that timeline, citing a restart window “between May and September.” 6
The EV division continues to weigh heavily on Ford’s finances, bleeding $4.8 billion in 2025. CEO Farley noted that “the customer has spoken,” prompting a shift toward hybrids and cheaper electrified options. Despite the setbacks, the company aims to hit EV break-even by 2029. 7
Ford is making affordability a key part of its strategy, not just a buzzword. The automaker aims to launch five new models under $40,000 by decade’s end, beginning with an electric four-door pickup in 2027, House revealed at a Wolfe Research conference. 8
Despite the improved 2026 forecast, some analysts remain cautious. RBC’s Tom Narayan maintained a Hold rating and a $12 price target, Barron’s reported, highlighting investor concerns about Ford Pro’s performance weighed against sizable EV losses and their vulnerability to policy shifts and supply chain costs. 9
Ford’s rebound isn’t guaranteed. In 2025, the company flipped from a profit to a loss, thanks to EV-related charges. Tariff policy changes, such as the retroactive adjustment to relief credits, could quickly shift the financials again. Any further disruptions or increased duties would put the 2026 forecast under pressure. 10
