NEW YORK, Feb 13, 2026, 04:52 EST — Premarket
Rivian Automotive’s stock shot up 18% in U.S. premarket trade Friday, as traders homed in on the EV maker’s latest quarterly numbers and its 2026 forecast—news that’s brought the company’s upcoming model cycle back into focus. Shares, which closed Thursday at $14 after a 5.1% slide, were last seen quoted at $16.53 on the Nasdaq. After hours, the stock rallied roughly 15%. (Yahoo Finance)
This is a significant shift for Rivian, which is betting on the smaller R2 SUV to move past its more expensive R1 models—a launch that’s now center stage as the company’s immediate test. Investors have shown a willingness to back “next quarter” EV growth narratives right up until those quarters come due.
The gap has narrowed. Investors are watching cash burn, plant outlays, and hints of weakening demand—precisely as output picks up.
Rivian’s fourth-quarter revenue landed at $1.286 billion, down from $1.734 billion a year ago. Still, the EV maker turned in a consolidated gross profit of $120 million and handed over 9,745 vehicles. Looking ahead, Rivian projects deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026 and pegs its adjusted EBITDA loss in the $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion range—EBITDA excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Capital expenditures are expected to range from $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. CEO RJ Scaringe called 2025 a year of “laying the foundation for dramatically scaling our business.” Rivian expects to start its first R2 customer deliveries in the second quarter and plans to reveal more about its line-up on March 12. (Business Wire)
Rivian’s R2 is set with a starting price near $45,000—landing it in the same territory as Tesla’s Model Y. But CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters the launch kicks off with a dual-motor, higher-end variant, and not every trim will be available this year. As for the R1T, R1S, and delivery vans, Scaringe expects unit numbers to hold steady compared to 2025. “The growth is really, of course, what we see in R2,” he added. Still, Zacks Investment Research strategist Andrew Rocco flagged past production stumbles as a key risk. Rivian wrapped December sitting on $3.58 billion in cash and equivalents. The company is banking on $2 billion in 2026 from a planned tech joint venture with Volkswagen. Scaringe also said Rivian could be “opportunistic” on future capital raises as cash burn continues. (Reuters)
According to MarketWatch, Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard described the R2 as “most material catalyst this year.” Investors are waiting for Rivian to spell out pricing and options on March 12, hoping for some clarity. (MarketWatch)
Rivian’s got its eye on software and services, too, not just the cars—something popping up more often now in EV earnings slides. The bulls are drawn by the promise of fatter margins from software compared to hardware. Bears, though, aren’t buying in until that starts to stabilize cash flow.
Still, things can unravel quickly. Miss the R2 timeline, hit snags scaling up, or push more discounts to clear stock—and margins take a hit. Add in extra spending, and Rivian might be looking at another run to the capital markets.
The initial hurdle is straightforward: will the after-hours jump last once the bell rings at 9:30 a.m. ET? Next up, March 12 brings the R2 product update, and soon after, customer deliveries kick off in the second quarter—shifting Rivian’s story from guidance to real production.
