New York, Feb 13, 2026, 13:01 EST — Regular session
- Spot silver rebounded 3.2%, clawing back some ground after tumbling 11% in the previous session.
- U.S. CPI landed below forecasts, bumping up the chances for a June Fed cut in the futures markets
- Silver stocks climbed, with traders positioning ahead of the latest inflation data and the upcoming long weekend.
Silver jumped 3.2% to $77.55 an ounce by 11:04 a.m. ET on Friday, rebounding hard after Thursday’s sharp slide. Traders pointed to the cooler U.S. inflation print as the key spark, rekindling bets on Fed rate cuts later this year. Independent metals trader Tai Wong described the move as a “relief rally” following the CPI data that helped settle nerves. 1
The swing’s crucial—silver tracks the same two drivers that have shaped this week: U.S. rates and the stubbornly strong dollar. With no yield, silver tends to falter as rates move up, then jolts again when traders adjust their Fed bets.
It’s not only a “safe haven” metal. A substantial chunk of demand comes straight from industry — think electronics, solar panels, manufacturing. So, when growth worries hit, the market can move just as sharply as it does on inflation news.
After the CPI numbers landed, Fed funds futures bumped up the probability of a June rate cut. The market is now pricing in roughly 64 basis points of easing for this year — remembering that 100 basis points makes up a full percentage point. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that as long as CPI remains contained, attention will “revert back to the labor market.” 2
Treasury yields eased following the release, with the 10-year slipping 2.9 basis points to 4.075%. The dollar index, meanwhile, hovered near 96.932, according to Reuters data. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, called the inflation figures “better than expected,” and said they support his outlook for Fed rate cuts later this year. 3
On Thursday, silver tumbled 8.9% to $76.54 an ounce—traders cited robust U.S. jobs numbers and a wave of technical selling once major price floors collapsed. “Those stops have been triggered,” said Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, pointing to a chain reaction as stop-loss orders kicked in, amplifying the drop. 4
Silver-linked stocks tracked the metal higher Friday. The iShares Silver Trust added 3.8% to $70.28. Pan American Silver jumped 6.2%, First Majestic Silver picked up 5.9%, and Hecla Mining climbed 8.3%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF also advanced, up 4.9%.
Risk is out in the open: price swings this week aren’t just about fundamentals—positioning and forced selling are doing plenty of the heavy lifting. Should inflation surprise on the upside again, or another batch of strong jobs numbers hit, the odds for rate cuts could be knocked down further. That scenario puts silver at risk for more liquidation.
Liquidity’s on the radar too. With U.S. stock and bond markets shut Monday for Presidents Day, trading picks up again Tuesday. That break tends to drain volumes and can amplify price swings. 5
Inflation traders are eyeing the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, set for Feb. 20. The PCE is the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, prized for reflecting real consumer purchases and factoring in shifts in spending. 6
Next up: January’s Producer Price Index lands Feb. 27, giving investors another read on upstream price pressures that could flow through to consumer inflation. 7
Aside from fresh data, attention is narrowing to the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting. Markets are watching for signals of a tone change after this week’s whipsaw.
