NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 4:04 PM EST — The market is closed.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects marketed natural gas production will hit an all-time high, averaging 120.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and climbing to 122.3 bcfd by 2027. 1
The market, still shaking off that wild late-January move, is now looking to find its late-winter footing. Lately, weather’s been in the driver’s seat. Now, though, supply factors are starting to make more noise.
LNG stands out as the other reliable lever. Export plants draw natural gas off the U.S. grid, chill it, then send it abroad—those outbound flows can tighten supply balances, even if heating demand at home slips.
March natural gas futures ticked up 2.6 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.243 per mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday—marking the strongest finish since Feb. 6, though prices are still off about 5% for the week. LSEG reported that Lower 48 output averaged 107.8 bcfd so far this month. Meteorologists expect mostly above-normal temperatures to linger through at least Feb. 28. Analysts noted that this warmth could erase the storage deficit by early March. In the Permian, cash prices at the Waha Hub stayed in the red for a seventh day running, the 16th time this year, as pipeline bottlenecks continue to strand gas. 2
Bryce Erickson at Mercer Capital isn’t seeing calm in the market just yet, even as the fundamentals look better. “Prices remain volatile, equities have struggled to find consistent footing and investor sentiment still skews cautious,” he told me. He highlighted demand propped up by LNG exports and data center-driven power generation. 3
U.S.-listed gas stocks wrapped up Friday’s session with gains: EQT advanced 2.7%, Kinder Morgan tacked on nearly 2%. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF, however, finished unchanged.
Still, it’s not much of a stretch to picture things swinging either way from here. If the weather cools again or new freeze-offs hit, supply could tighten quickly. On the other hand, a mild finish to February and consistent production would tilt bearish, continuing to squeeze overburdened hubs in areas such as West Texas.
With U.S. equity markets closed Monday for Presidents Day, price discovery shifts to Tuesday’s session. 4
Eyes now shift to the next data point: the EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report lands Feb. 19. Alongside that, traders are tracking up-to-the-minute weather models and LNG feedgas flows to liquefaction plants, gauging whether demand is softening or staying firm. 5
