New York, Feb 16, 2026, 17:03 EST — The session wrapped up with the market now closed.
- Exxon closed Friday at $148.45, down roughly 1% for the day.
- Oil added roughly 1% on Monday, with traders looking ahead to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks kicking off Tuesday.
- Investors are eyeing signals that OPEC+ could resume boosting production as early as April.
Exxon Mobil Corp shares are set for their next move tied to crude prices once U.S. markets reopen Tuesday. Oil ended higher after a thinly traded Monday session, with traders zeroed in on geopolitical developments.
That’s relevant at this point since Exxon’s profits and cash generation typically move with both crude prices and refining spreads. On the calendar this week: U.S.-Iran negotiations, plus renewed OPEC+ supply talk, bringing both factors into focus.
Monday saw U.S. stock exchanges shut down for Presidents Day, with regular trading set to pick up again on Tuesday.
Exxon wrapped up Friday’s session off $1.53, slipping about 1% to close at $148.45. Chevron, the other big U.S. oil name traders often compare to Exxon, edged up slightly.
Brent crude finished 90 cents higher at $68.65 a barrel. U.S. WTI hovered near $63.75, but with the holiday, there was no official settlement. Traders are watching for the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, set for Tuesday in Geneva. “Fears of supply disruption from the U.S.-Iran tensions have helped keep oil prices stable,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. Reuters
Citi, in a note out Monday, called out geopolitics as a driver keeping oil up short-term, but argued that if peace deals materialize between Russia and Ukraine and with Iran later this year, prices could tumble. The bank’s view: both deals are likely by summer. Brent, Citi figures, would slide back toward $60–$62 a barrel if that plays out.
Citi flagged a potential hit to refining margins if diesel and gasoline “cracks”—that’s the spread between crude prices and finished fuels—shrink.
Exxon’s in a spot where both sides of the business matter—upstream operations stand to gain if crude prices climb, but refining is another story, whipsawing with swings in fuel demand and margins.
But those headlines driving crude higher? They can just as easily reverse. Should negotiations calm supply jitters — or OPEC+ surprise by pumping more oil — prices might slide to the bottom of their recent band, deflating some of the momentum in energy stocks.
Trading kicks back in on Tuesday, with eyes turning to Geneva for any developments, as well as hints from OPEC+ before the group’s March 1 meeting on output policy.
