New York, Feb 17, 2026, 05:37 EST — Premarket
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) hovered close to $401 in premarket trading Tuesday, with the shares barely budging as U.S. investors returned from the holiday—and the AI payback argument persisted across the big tech names. Microsoft inched down 0.1% to $401.32. Apple, Nvidia and Alphabet all edged lower ahead of the open as well.
Microsoft’s stock has taken a hit this year, dropping around 17% for 2026 as of Friday’s close and shedding nearly $613 billion in market cap, now sitting at roughly $2.98 trillion. The move comes as investors grow uneasy over potential threats to its AI ambitions, with Google’s newest Gemini model and Anthropic’s Claude Cowork AI agent turning up the heat. 1
It’s not demand that’s keeping folks up—it’s the surging capex. Hyperscalers, the giants of cloud computing, are ramping up their spending on data centers and chips, pushing capex plans to $660 billion for this year. That’s a jump of $120 billion since the start of earnings season, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Meanwhile, S&P 500 buybacks are down 7% from last year. With U.S. cash markets back in action after Presidents Day, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid flagged that their economists see (U.S.) real GDP growth moderating to 2.5% for Q4. 2
Back in late January, Microsoft rattled investors by disclosing record AI spending for the quarter and reporting a slowdown in cloud-computing growth—a combo that sent shares tumbling after hours. Executives also flagged the risk of higher chip prices dragging on cloud margins as time goes on. 3
Macro drivers might yet take center stage. Investors are eyeing Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the central bank’s favored inflation marker. “Traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode,” ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista told Reuters. 4
Microsoft bulls face a short leash: costs could easily outpace revenue growth, tightening buyback flexibility and squeezing margins. If enterprise clients get more selective—pitting Microsoft against Google and upstart AI rivals—the downside for the trade grows.
Back in December, Microsoft announced its board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.91 a share, set for payment on March 12, 2026. The ex-dividend date lands on Feb. 19—after that, buyers aren’t entitled to the next dividend. 5
Traders are eyeing MSFT to see if it stays above the $400 mark, with the market sifting through Wednesday’s Fed minutes and more data landing Friday. Next up for Microsoft: its Feb. 19 ex-dividend date.
