New York, Feb 18, 2026, 11:02 AM (EST) — Regular session underway
- Lumentum shares tack on more gains Wednesday, helped along by another bump in Wall Street’s price target.
- Mizuho bumped its target up to $645, with investors still fixated on the run in AI-networking demand.
- Next up: late-February and March investor events, with OFC coming March 17.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) climbed 1.2% to $607.53 late Wednesday morning, fueled by a fresh price target bump from Mizuho. Earlier, shares had peaked at $615.26.
This comes as traders expand the idea of “AI infrastructure” beyond just chips and servers. Talk of bottlenecks has made its way into networking equipment and the optical connections that tie together massive AI clusters—suddenly, Lumentum is a busy trade on that theme.
Targets are shifting fast. One analyst note is sometimes enough to jolt the stock, with markets scrambling to gauge the pace of AI expansion — and if optics suppliers are able to keep up.
On Feb. 17, Mizuho Securities’ Vijay Rakesh bumped his price target for Lumentum up to $645, a jump from the previous $525, while sticking with his buy call, according to TipRanks data. (TipRanks)
Lumentum got things rolling earlier this month with its own results. Fiscal Q2 net revenue landed at $665.5 million, and non-GAAP earnings reached $1.67 per share. For the third quarter, Lumentum projected revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with non-GAAP EPS expected in the $2.15 to $2.35 range. President and CEO Michael Hurlston cited optical circuit switch demand as the driver behind a backlog that’s now “well beyond $400 million.” He also flagged a “multi-hundred-million-dollar” co-packaged optics order, scheduled for delivery in the first half of calendar 2027. (Lumentum)
Non-GAAP is a metric companies use that excludes items like stock-based compensation. That can help with comparing results from one quarter to another, though it sometimes paints a rosier picture when expenses climb.
Optical circuit switching (OCS) leans on light to route data among systems, pushing for quicker transfers and a smaller power bill. Then there’s co-packaged optics (CPO): by putting optical connections right next to network chips, it slashes energy and heat—crucial for data centers as they ramp up.
Strength rippled through the sector. Coherent jumped 3.4%, Ciena tacked on 2.3% Wednesday, with both stocks catching the lift that spread across optical and networking shares linked to data-center spending.
Still, there’s no getting around the risk. Lumentum depends heavily on just a handful of big buyers, and AI capex spending isn’t exactly smooth sailing. Missed orders, delayed projects, slower-than-hoped-for rollouts of new optical tech—any of that could quickly leave the stock exposed to bad news, with little buffer.
Investors eye a string of upcoming dates. Lumentum’s management is set to appear at Susquehanna’s technology conference on Feb. 26, then heads to Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom event on March 2. An investor briefing is also on tap at OFC in Los Angeles on March 17. These meetings mark the next opportunities for clarity from the company on OCS backlog timing and the 2027 CPO order. (Lumentum)
Looking ahead, March 17 looms as the next hard catalyst. Traders want to hear about new orders, delivery timing, and—crucially—whether that optics backlog is actually converting to revenue as quickly as the current stock price suggests.
