London, February 17, 2026, 17:57 (GMT) — Regular session.
- Brent slips roughly 2%, trading close to $67 a barrel in the afternoon.
- Middle East risk gets a fresh look from traders after signs of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
- Next up: traders are watching OPEC+ supply moves and waiting for the postponed U.S. inventory numbers.
Brent crude futures fell on Tuesday, hovering close to $67 a barrel, after fresh signs of movement in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations chipped away at the geopolitical risk premium that had buoyed prices lately. As of 17:57 GMT, Brent was off $1.52, or 2.21%, at $67.13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 1.16% to $62.02. 1
The retreat is notable—the oil market’s been reacting to headlines instead of supply-and-demand math. Talks in Geneva, sanctions crackdowns, and jitters over major shipping routes have all sent prices lurching, sometimes flipping course in just a few hours.
Volatility in the market is running up against fresh supply concerns. OPEC+, the coalition of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is leaning toward resuming output hikes starting in April, wrapping up a three-month freeze, according to Reuters sources ahead of their March 1 meeting. SEB analysts flagged the stakes: “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel.” 2
Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said the U.S. and Iran now see eye to eye on the central “guiding principles” in their nuclear negotiations. Still, he cautioned, “this does not mean a deal is imminent.” Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, weighed in: “Oil prices are likely to stay volatile, with sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals.” 3
U.S.-Iran tensions remain firmly on traders’ radar, with any escalation threatening oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a slim corridor separating Oman and Iran that handles about 20% of global oil consumption. Most of the crude from Iran and key Gulf exporters moves via this route, most of it headed for Asian markets.
On the supply front, there’s movement in the opposite direction. Russia’s Interfax said Kazakhstan’s massive Tengiz oil field has been slowly ramping up production since a January outage, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain in the spotlight; a deal could, down the line, soften sanctions and potentially redirect Russian crude back into regular trade flows.
Citi, in a note late Monday, flagged geopolitics as a near-term prop for oil, but said prices could retreat if diplomatic breakthroughs materialize later this year. Brent, the bank pointed out, has climbed from about $60 to nearly $70 a barrel in the past month—helped by stricter U.S. sanctions enforcement against Russian and Iranian barrels, along with other supply hiccups. “Both Iran and Russia-Ukraine deals happen by or during the summer of this year,” Citi wrote, suggesting Brent might slip back to $60–$62 if that pans out. That would also pressure diesel and gasoline “cracks,” or the profits refiners earn by converting crude into fuels. 4
Politics are driving the market now, but that grip could loosen fast. If negotiations fall apart, energy sites get hit again, or Hormuz even looks threatened, prices could spike. On the flip side, supplies coming back sooner than traders expect—or a green light on extra OPEC+ barrels—could send prices tumbling further.
Traders are tracking any momentum from the Geneva talks and looking for signals ahead of the March 1 OPEC+ gathering. U.S. inventory data is also on their list. The U.S. Energy Information Administration confirmed its Weekly Petroleum Status Report will come out Thursday, February 19, at both 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern, due to the federal holiday closure on Monday, February 16. 5
