New York, February 19, 2026, 14:17 EST — Regular session
- U.S. gasoline futures pushed higher after a surprise draw in inventories.
- Crude held firm on Middle East tension, keeping refined products supported.
- Traders are watching the shift to summer-grade fuel and next week’s inventory data.
U.S. gasoline futures climbed on Thursday after government data showed a sharper-than-expected drop in gasoline stockpiles, a sign demand is firming even before the typical spring pickup. Front-month RBOB gasoline futures — the main U.S. benchmark contract — were up 3.4 cents, or about 1.7%, at roughly $2.00 a gallon by mid-afternoon in New York. (Investing)
The timing matters. Refineries are running hard, but inventories are already drawing down, and wholesale fuel prices tend to get jumpy when supply cushions thin ahead of the summer driving season.
Add in the coming switch to summer-grade gasoline — a cleaner-burning blend that can be costlier to make — and the market has one more reason to pay attention to small changes in demand.
U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels last week to 255.8 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, far more than the draw expected in a Reuters poll. Refinery utilization rose to 91%, the highest rate in a month, and total product supplied — the EIA’s proxy for demand — increased to 21.65 million barrels per day; UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo called the report “very bullish,” citing “massive draws across the board.” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said gasoline demand picked up as people “got their cars out of the snow and started driving them again.” (Reuters)
Crude’s rally is also doing some of the work for gasoline. Brent rose about 1.8% to $71.60 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.9% to $66.41 by early afternoon, with traders focused on rising U.S.-Iran tensions; Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates pointed to “geopolitical tensions” and fears of a strike on Iran. (Reuters)
At the pump, the picture still looks calmer. AAA said the national average for regular gasoline was $2.92 a gallon on Thursday, slightly below a week earlier, but warned prices typically start a seasonal climb as spring approaches and summer-blend production begins. (AAA Fuel Prices)
Refiner shares didn’t move in lockstep with the futures pop. Valero Energy slipped about 0.7% and Marathon Petroleum fell roughly 1.1%, while PBF Energy rose about 2.1%; Phillips 66 was down about 1.1% in afternoon trade.
Investors in the refining names tend to watch the “crack spread,” the margin indicator tied to turning crude into fuels like gasoline and diesel. When gasoline prices rise faster than crude, those margins can improve — but the relationship can flip quickly when crude spikes.
But the bull case rests on demand staying up and refineries avoiding a quick supply rebound. If refinery runs keep climbing or driving demand fades once weather disruptions pass, inventories can rebuild and cap wholesale prices.
Next up is the EIA’s next weekly petroleum report, due February 25, and any fresh signal that the market is moving deeper into summer-grade production and tighter product stocks. (Eia)
