NEW YORK, February 19, 2026, 14:11 (EST) — Regular session
Crude oil jumped about 2% on Thursday, reaching six-month highs as traders weighed the risk that U.S.-Iran friction could disrupt supplies. Brent futures were up $1.25, or 1.8%, at $71.60 a barrel as of 1:29 p.m. EST. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added $1.22, or 1.9%, hitting $66.41. Both contracts headed for their strongest settles since late July and early August. Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, pointed to “geopolitical tensions and the worry that the U.S. is going to strike (Iran) in the near future” as key factors. Iran’s brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz for drills, plus plans for naval exercises with Russia, have kept nerves rattled. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said Washington needs a meaningful deal with Tehran. 1
This uptick is notable: traders are once again shelling out for protection against disruptions in Middle East oil, as the Strait of Hormuz grabs attention as a crucial bottleneck. Energy stocks responded alongside crude—Exxon Mobil and Chevron both climbed roughly 1% early in U.S. trading. 2
U.S. inventory numbers added fuel to the rally. According to the Energy Information Administration, crude stocks dropped by 9 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 13, confounding forecasts for a 2.1-million-barrel build. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, slipped another 1.1 million barrels. Demand also ticked higher — total product supplied reached 21.65 million barrels a day. Refineries cranked up to 91% capacity, notching a one-month high. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo described the figures as “very bullish.” Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn pointed to drivers finally “got their cars out of the snow,” with distillate demand still getting a lift from wintry conditions. 3
This week, the inventory numbers dropped on Thursday—not the typical midweek timing—after the U.S. holiday schedule pushed the release back a day. 4
Traders keep a sharp eye on product supplied, a key gauge of fuel moving from primary storage into the market—especially when prices start swinging. Since distillates cover both diesel and heating oil, colder weather tends to put immediate pressure on those supplies.
Saudi crude exports slipped to 6.988 million barrels per day in December, JODI data showed, marking the lowest level since September and a drop from November’s 7.378 million bpd. Production, however, climbed to roughly 10.084 million bpd—its highest since April 2023. “Crude oil was used domestically or for refining it into products,” Staunovo noted, as the report highlighted the export decline ahead of a possible OPEC+ supply policy move. 5
Asia’s crude imports look set to reach a record 28.51 million bpd in February, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. There’s a notable change in where that oil is coming from: India is expected to bring in far less Russian crude in March, while shipments from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia included, are picking up. 6
The market’s floor isn’t set in stone. Should Washington or Tehran dial down tensions, that risk premium could disappear fast. U.S. stock draws? They might reverse, too, if refinery runs cool off or exports lose momentum.
Wednesday’s rally was sharp. Brent jumped $2.93, or 4.35%, closing at $70.35. WTI tacked on $2.86, or 4.59%, to finish at $65.19. That late push came after new chatter about a potential strike. Eurasia Group, a political consultancy, put the likelihood of U.S. strikes on Iran before end-April at 65%. SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop, for his part, noted that a spike to $150 a barrel is “the very last thing” Trump would want. 7
Attention shifts to the upcoming U.S. inventory data, with the EIA’s weekly report set for Feb. 25. Meanwhile, markets are watching for new cues from Washington and Tehran—any sign from either could sway risk appetite one way or the other. 8
