NEW YORK, Feb 23, 2026, 09:59 EST — Regular session
- Comfort Systems USA shares slipped early in U.S. trading, cooling off after a sharp rally ahead of the results.
- Investors juggle a record backlog with worries over execution and tight labor.
- Next up: management’s 2026 growth outlook and timing for the March dividend take center stage.
Shares of Comfort Systems USA dropped roughly 1.8% to $1,435.55 during early Monday trading in New York.
The retreat follows just days after the HVAC and electrical contractor logged a sizable increase in fourth-quarter profit and revenue, with backlog reported close to $12 billion. That backlog, representing the value of unfinished contracted work, offers a rough gauge of upcoming revenue.
Why it matters now: Comfort Systems has turned into a key indicator for the hands-on side of data center expansion—cooling, power, mechanical projects, all of it in high demand. According to a recent filing, the company’s investor presentation pegged technology customers at 45% of projected 2025 revenue, a shift that keeps shares closely tracking the spending cycles of major tech names.
During the Feb. 20 earnings call, Chief Executive Brian Lane pegged modular capacity — meaning off-site prefabrication to move big projects along — at “around 3,000,000 square feet.” He put the target at “approximately 4,000,000” by the close of 2026. Executives cited a mid- to high-teens same-store sales growth goal for 2026 as well; that figure leaves out any acquired businesses. (The Motley Fool)
Shares of contractors linked to big commercial projects saw mixed action in the morning. EMCOR Group nudged higher. Quanta Services picked up ground. Vertiv, which makes data-center equipment, lost a bit.
Still, the company cautions that backlog isn’t always a steady barometer. Comfort Systems, in its annual report, pointed out that “unexpected adjustments and cancellations” can hit backlog numbers. The filing also disclosed that one customer accounted for roughly 12.8% of 2025 revenue — a vulnerability if any project gets delayed or significantly altered. Comfort Systems additionally cited tight skilled labor markets and rising labor costs as margin risks for its fixed-price contracts. (SEC)
The bear case here is clear-cut: delays in hyperscaler or industrial work, or a tighter squeeze on labor and subcontractors, and the company might find it tough to turn its current backlog into on-time, profitable revenue. A slowdown in data-center building would hit bookings almost immediately.
