New York, Feb 25, 2026, 10:08 (EST) — Regular session underway
- Microsoft popped 2.5% to $398.72 in morning trading, having started the session at $390.57.
- Microsoft Japan was raided by Japan’s competition watchdog, which is looking into Azure cloud practices.
- Big Tech’s hefty AI infrastructure bets now face a new wrinkle: investors are eyeing increased regulatory risk.
Microsoft stock was up 2.5% at $398.72 Wednesday morning, shrugging off news of a Japan antitrust investigation into its cloud operations. Shares swung from $390.21 to $399.11 earlier in the session.
Japanese regulators have stepped in just as Microsoft stock faces added pressure, with markets jittery over potential headwinds for Azure, the company’s cloud arm. The antitrust investigation zeroes in on competition rules designed to prevent big players from squeezing out competitors or tying in users.
The surge comes as questions swirl over whether the AI push is just swallowing cash before delivering returns. Bridgewater Associates expects Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft together to pour roughly $650 billion into AI infrastructure this year. Co-CIO Greg Jensen called this stage of the boom a “more dangerous phase.” Reuters
The Japanese Fair Trade Commission carried out a raid on Microsoft Japan’s offices this Wednesday, investigating potential antitrust violations tied to alleged restrictions on Azure customers choosing competing cloud providers, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. A spokesperson for Microsoft Japan said the company is “fully cooperating with the JFTC in their requests.” Reuters
Wall Street started the day on a positive note after some choppy trading, as investors looked ahead to Nvidia’s earnings expected later. The Nasdaq added 0.62% at the open, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.36%, according to Reuters.
Microsoft has weighed on the big tech sector this year, shedding almost 20% in 2026 through Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices data shows, as the market ponders whether outsized AI investments will pay off. “Nvidia’s earnings matter because they are kind of the linchpin of the Mag Seven,” said Chuck Carlson, CEO at Horizon Investment Services. Ken Polcari, partner and chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, added: “AI will continue to disrupt the world but I don’t think it’s the end of the world.” Reuters
With Microsoft’s drop from its October high, a few traders are eyeing long-term chart markers. MarketWatch points out that the stock is closing in on its 200-week moving average—a level plenty of technical analysts consider key long-term support—not seen since over ten years ago.
Microsoft’s most recent quarterly results showed revenue climbing 17% to $81.3 billion, with Azure and other cloud services jumping 39% for the December period. “Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion this quarter,” CFO Amy Hood noted. The company also handed $12.7 billion back to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Microsoft
Azure faces off against Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, as regulators intensify their scrutiny of how cloud giants package services and structure terms—practices that can raise switching costs for customers. Cracking down on these tactics could alter the landscape for enterprise deals, particularly when it comes to long-term contracts.
Even so, an investigation doesn’t guarantee any penalties, and these processes tend to drag on. If things escalate to behavioral remedies, fines, or comparable measures, the real impact would probably show up in sentiment rather than immediate earnings. That’s the risk investors will factor in, especially if the probe expands.
Nvidia reports after the bell Wednesday, and traders want to see if AI momentum holds. They’re also waiting for more specifics from Japan’s regulator about its probe into Microsoft’s cloud unit.
