London, Feb 26, 2026, 07:55 GMT — Premarket
- BP shares last closed at 470.25 pence, down 0.2%, ahead of Thursday’s London open.
- Brent hovered around $71 as traders tracked U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and a March 1 OPEC+ meeting.
- A sharp jump in U.S. crude stockpiles kept oil’s upside in check.
BP (BP.L) shares last closed at 470.25 pence on Wednesday, down 0.2%, and about 3% below their Feb. 19 high. BP’s U.S.-listed shares were last up 0.6% in after-hours trade at $38.09. (Investing)
Oil prices steadied early on Thursday, with Brent futures up 0.3% at $71.06 a barrel at 0720 GMT, as traders weighed U.S.-Iran talks that could shift supply risk in either direction. “Investors are focusing on whether military conflict will be averted in the U.S.-Iran negotiations,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, while ING said a deal could unwind part of what it sees as a roughly $10-a-barrel “risk premium” — extra price linked to fear of disruption. (Reuters)
The oil swings matter more for BP after a reset on cash returns. On Feb. 10, BP paused its quarterly share buyback — a programme where a company repurchases its own stock — and said it would put excess cash into cutting net debt, after also booking about $4 billion in charges on renewables and biogas assets. (Reuters)
Traders are also staring at OPEC+ for the next shove. Eight producers — including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE — meet on March 1 and are expected to consider raising output by 137,000 barrels per day for April, sources have said, though a pause is still on the table. (Reuters)
For BP investors, the near-term trade is simple and a bit brutal: oil headlines, oil price, then everything else. The stock tends to move with crude because the company’s cash flow rises and falls with realised prices across its production and trading books.
The risk cut both ways. If diplomacy cools tensions and OPEC+ adds supply into a market already wrestling with swelling inventories, crude could slip and take the shine off the sector. If talks sour, oil can jump, but volatility can just as quickly revive demand worries and political pressure.
BP also carries a company-specific question mark that doesn’t fade just because Brent bounces around: how quickly it can push net debt into its target range and what that means for buybacks coming back. Until that is clearer, the stock can lag rivals when oil dips and still struggle to lead when oil rallies.
Later on Thursday, negotiators resume indirect talks in Geneva under Omani mediation, with markets braced for abrupt headlines. The next fixed point after that is March 1, when the OPEC+ group is due to decide whether April output rises, pauses, or surprises. (Reuters)
