New York, February 26, 2026, 09:07 EST — Premarket
AXT Inc slipped 2.4% ahead of the bell Thursday, cooling off after a sharp 44% jump across the previous two sessions that nearly brought the stock to a new 52-week high. Most recent trades saw shares at roughly $39.99, following a 16.8% surge to $40.97 at Wednesday’s close.
The move is drawing attention since AXT occupies a key spot in the chip supply chain, seen by investors as something of a bellwether for AI infrastructure. The company produces compound semiconductor substrates—these are materials built from multiple elements—such as indium phosphide, which finds its way into fiber optics, 5G, and data-center connectivity.
The company’s sticking with that message, though it keeps flagging export permits as a sticking point. Chief executive Morris Young said last week the company had “received some permits to date in 2026” and expects sequential revenue gains in the first quarter, “driven primarily by growth in indium phosphide for the AI infrastructure build-out.” SEC
Permits aren’t some minor detail for AXT. The company noted in a prospectus supplement that indium phosphide substrates landed on China’s export control list as of Feb. 4, 2025. Now, every core substrate produced by the China arm needs a Chinese export permit.
AXT in January cut its Q4 revenue outlook, blaming the drop on a slowdown in export control permits for indium phosphide from China’s Ministry of Commerce. Back then, Young pointed out the “fluid” timing on permits, noting they don’t always align with the company’s quarterly calendar. Axt
No surprise the stock’s been all over the map. Traders keep wrestling with one thing: can demand ramp quickly enough to stay ahead of bureaucracy and political hurdles?
The wider AI sector moved after-hours, after Nvidia posted its latest results and projected stronger revenue for the current quarter than analysts had called for. “Concerns about an AI slowdown simply are not showing up yet,” said Bob O’Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, in a Reuters piece. Reuters
Still, the structure at AXT isn’t without risk. Delays in permit approvals can push out shipments, making revenue unpredictable—even with plenty of customer demand. After back-to-back double-digit gains, just a minor setback is enough to shake the stock.
AXT is on deck to report its latest quarterly numbers April 23, FactSet estimates show, as published by Markets Insider.
Right now, it comes down to something simple: will the shares catch any buyers after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell? Traders are also watching for any new word on export permits before focus moves on to the next round of earnings.
